Table 2.

Results of the first simulation study

Scenario	SDϕ	Model
		Model‐GLM	Model‐CAR	Model‐Local	Model‐HH	Model‐LM
Bias
A	0.1	0.39	0.41	−0.34	0.40	0.40
	0.01	0.18	0.16	0.07	0.20	0.14
B	0.1	0.31	−0.25	−0.80	0.33	−0.36
	0.01	−0.11	−0.12	−0.18	−0.08	−0.12
C	0.1	−0.26	−0.27	0.95	−0.23	−0.22
	0.01	−0.02	−0.02	0.10	0.02	−0.04
D	0.1	1.38	−1.31	−0.11	1.04	0.83
	0.01	0.17	1.02	−0.11	0.02	1.06
E	0.1	−2.18	−0.63	0.81	−1.10	0.76
	0.01	0.56	0.71	0.31	0.59	1.80
F	0.1	−2.63	−0.19	0.93	−1.69	1.15
	0.01	−2.84	−1.23	−0.04	−3.00	1.00
Root mean square error
A	0.1	6.37	6.43	6.45	6.43	6.45
	0.01	4.48	4.51	4.46	4.52	4.51
B	0.1	17.71	15.23	15.28	17.64	15.31
	0.01	4.90	4.90	4.91	4.90	4.90
C	0.1	26.70	18.73	18.91	26.44	18.34
	0.01	4.78	4.75	4.74	4.79	4.74
D	0.1	53.49	45.42	7.60	47.23	16.13
	0.01	52.65	43.88	4.84	45.47	9.02
E	0.1	59.71	49.87	16.88	53.18	19.48
	0.01	52.53	42.37	4.70	44.93	7.94
F	0.1	60.71	50.32	22.64	54.20	20.51
	0.01	53.98	43.81	4.64	47.02	8.39
Coverage
A	0.1	94.8	96.6	94.8	84.8	96.4
	0.01	94.0	96.6	96.2	95.4	96.8
B	0.1	52.8	85.4	85.6	42.8	87.6
	0.01	93.4	95.8	95.6	93.6	96.6
C	0.1	35.0	77.4	77.0	25.8	79.0
	0.01	93.4	96.0	96.2	93.6	96.8
D	0.1	67.8	91.2	94.4	16.4	95.0
	0.01	70.0	92.2	94.6	17.6	95.0
E	0.1	62.6	89.0	76.2	10.6	84.8
	0.01	68.4	93.8	94.0	17.8	97.8
F	0.1	63.6	87.4	63.2	17.0	74.6
	0.01	67.2	91.4	95.6	15.8	96.6

The top panel displays the bias (as a percentage of the true value) for the pollution–health relationship estimated by each of the five models, and the middle panel displays the root mean square error (as a percentage of the true value), while the bottom panel displays the coverage probabilities (as a percentage) of the 95% uncertainty intervals.