Table 6.

Proportion of trials deciding in favor of H₁ when including patients treated at the MTD, MTD −1, MTD +1 for the four scenarios when using different prior distributions. T₁ is based on model based efficacy rates; T₂ is based on an acceptable region of efficacy and toxicity. Median Sample size (ASN) to make a decision in favor of H₁ at any dose. G : Gamma with parameters (scale,shape).

g(b) in T1					g2(b), g1(a) in T2
Scenario 1	MTD−1	MTD	MTD+1	ASN	Scenario 1	MTD−1	MTD	MTD+1	ASN
Uniform	0.06	0.20	0.56	35	Uniform	0.18	0.26	0.49	34
G(1.5,2)	0.11	0.26	0.59	14	G(1.5,2);G(1,2)	0.17	0.26	0.49	34
G(2,1)	0.15	0.31	0.63	12	G(2,1);G(2,1)	0.17	0.25	0.48	36
G(5, 0.5)	0.49	0.74	0.78	4	G(5, 0.5);G(4,0.5)	0.20	0.29	0.50	30
Scenario 2					Scenario 2
Uniform	0.11	0.84	0.61	17	Uniform	0.25	0.85	0.49	16
G(1.5,2)	0.15	0.84	0.61	12	G(1.5,2);G(1,2)	0.23	0.85	0.48	16
G(2,1)	0.19	0.85	0.61	11	G(2,1);G(2,1)	0.22	0.84	0.48	16
G(5, 0.5)	0.50	0.94	0.72	4	G(5, 0.5);G(4,0.5)	0.26	0.86	0.49	16
Scenario 3					Scenario 3
Uniform	0.07	0.53	0.60	24	Uniform	0.19	0.58	0.54	21
G(1.5,2)	0.10	0.54	0.61	15	G(1.5,2);G(1,2)	0.17	0.58	0.54	21
G(2,1)	0.14	0.58	0.62	13	G(2,1);G(2,1)	0.17	0.57	0.53	22
G(5, 0.5)	0.45	0.79	0.72	4	G(5, 0.5);G(4,0.5)	0.20	0.59	0.54	20
Scenario 4					Scenario 4
Uniform	0.43	0.95	0.64	10	Uniform	0.53	0.96	0.62	11
G(1.5,2)	0.44	0.94	0.66	6	G(1.5,2);G(1,2)	0.52	0.96	0.62	11
G(2,1)	0.49	0.95	0.64	6	G(2,1);G(2,1)	0.52	0.96	0.61	11
G(5, 0.5)	0.69	0.99	0.70	3	G(5, 0.5);G(4,1/2)	0.54	0.97	0.62	11