Table 1.

Potential Screening Scenarios in the US Population Based on Single Time Point Detection of Oral HPV16 Infection, HPV16 E6 Seropositivity, and Incidence of Oropharyngeal Cancer

Scenario	Men and Women, Age 40-69 Years With Oral HPV16 Infection	Men and Women, Age 40 to 69 Years With HPV16 E6 Seropositivity
No. of individuals in the US population*	112 million	112 million
Prevalence of marker, %*	1.3	0.7
No. of individuals with marker positivity*	1.4 million	784,000
Incidence rate of oropharyngeal cancer†	9.5 per 100,000	9.5 per 100,000
No. of incident oropharyngeal cancers‡	∼9,800	∼9,800
NNS to identify one individual with marker positivity§	77	143
Probability of concurrent cancer given infection, %‖	0.70	1.25
NNS for prevalent oropharynx cancer¶	∼10,500	∼10,500

Abbreviations: HPV, human papillomavirus; NNS, number needed to screen.

^*Derived from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2009-2012 data.

^†Derived from nine cancer registries in the National Cancer Institute's SEER program for the year 2011. Oropharyngeal cancers include the base of tongue, lingual tonsil, soft palate, uvula, tonsil, oropharynx, and Waldeyer's ring. The estimates indicate incidence of all oropharyngeal cancers, both HPV positive and HPV negative.

^‡Estimated based on the number of individuals in the US population and incidence rate of oropharyngeal cancers. The number of cancers for ages 40 to 69 years was based on the proportion of cancers in ages 14 to 69 that occur in individuals age 40 to 69 years.

^§Denotes the number needed to be screened to detect one individual with prevalent oral HPV16 infection or HPV16 E6 seropositivity. For example, estimated as 100 divided by the prevalence of oral HPV16 infection.

^‖Estimated as the number of oropharynx cancers per year divided by the number of individuals with prevalent oral HPV16 infection or HPV16 E6 seropositivity.

^¶Estimated as the number of oropharynx cancers per year divided by the total number of individuals in the US population.