Table 3. Area burned and suppression cost results for each GCM on a national scale.
GCM | Scenario | Average Annual Area Burned | Percentage Change | Average Proportion Burneda | Average Annual Total Suppression Costb | Percentage Change | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CanESM2 | 2011–2040 | 2.0 x106 | 105% | 0.61% | $ 7.7 x108 | 25% | |
2.6 | 2041–2070 | 2.1 x106 | 113% | 0.63% | $ 8.9 x108 | 44% | |
2071–2100 | 2.4 x106 | 142% | 0.72% | $ 1.1 x109 | 72% | ||
2011–2040 | 1.9 x106 | 96% | 0.58% | $ 7.6 x108 | 24% | ||
8.5 | 2041–2070 | 5.5 x106 | 459% | 1.66% | $ 1.0 x109 | 69% | |
2071–2100 | 1.1 x107 | 1034% | 3.37% | $ 1.5 x109 | 141% | ||
CESM | 2011–2040 | 1.2 x106 | 28% | 0.38% | $ 7.0 x108 | 13% | |
2.6 | 2041–2070 | 1.9 x106 | 99% | 0.59% | $ 8.7 x108 | 41% | |
2071–2100 | 1.5 x106 | 49% | 0.44% | $ 1.0 x109 | 62% | ||
2011–2040 | 2.0 x106 | 105% | 0.61% | $ 7.5 x108 | 21% | ||
8.5 | 2041–2070 | 3.8 x106 | 293% | 1.17% | $ 9.8 x108 | 59% | |
2071–2100 | 7.5 x106 | 665% | 2.27% | $ 1.3 x109 | 116% | ||
HadGEM1 | 2011–2040 | 1.8 x106 | 80% | 0.54% | $ 7.4 x108 | 20% | |
2.6 | 2041–2070 | 1.6 x106 | 66% | 0.49% | $ 8.7 x108 | 41% | |
2071–2100 | 1.6 x106 | 65% | 0.49% | $ 9.9 x108 | 60% | ||
2011–2040 | 2.0 x106 | 109% | 0.62% | $ 7.4 x108 | 19% | ||
8.5 | 2041–2070 | 4.0 x106 | 307% | 1.21% | $ 9.5 x108 | 55% | |
2071–2100 | 1.1 x107 | 977% | 3.20% | $ 1.4 x109 | 131% | ||
MIROC | 2011–2040 | 9.4 x105 | -4% | 0.29% | $ 7.0 x108 | 14% | |
2.6 | 2041–2070 | 1.1 x106 | 8% | 0.32% | $ 8.6 x108 | 40% | |
2071–2100 | 9.5 x105 | -3% | 0.29% | $ 9.9 x108 | 61% | ||
2011–2040 | 6.1 x105 | -38% | 0.18% | $ 6.9 x108 | 13% | ||
8.5 | 2041–2070 | 2.9 x106 | 195% | 0.88% | $ 9.2 x108 | 50% | |
2071–2100 | 4.9 x106 | 397% | 1.48% | $ 1.2 x109 | 89% | ||
Average | 2011–2040 | 1.5 x106 | 52% | 0.45% | $ 7.3 x108 | 15% | |
2.6 | 2041–2070 | 1.7 x106 | 72% | 0.51% | $ 8.7 x108 | 39% | |
2071–2100 | 1.6 x106 | 63% | 0.49% | $ 1.0 x109 | 60% | ||
2011–2040 | 1.6 x106 | 68% | 0.50% | $ 7.4 x108 | 19% | ||
8.5 | 2041–2070 | 4.0 x106 | 313% | 1.23% | $ 9.7 x108 | 58% | |
2071–2100 | 8.5 x106 | 768% | 2.58% | $ 1.4 x109 | 119% |
aProportion of 328,488,862 hectares of the forested area of interest.
bCosts reported in 2009 Canadian dollars.