Table 3.

Predicted number of men and life-years per health state comparing annual screening in men aged 55–69 years with no screening. Numbers presented are per 1,000 men aged 0–100 years, over their entire lifetime. The attendance at screening is assumed to be 80%.

Absolute number of life-years gained due to screening (output of the model, not adjusted for quality of life)						72.7
Health state	Utility loss	No Screening	Screening	Difference		Quality adjustment
		Number	Number	Number	Life-years *	Life-years (range)‡
Screening attendance	− 0.01	0	8,242	8,242	158	−1.6 (−1.9, −0.3)
Biopsy	− 0.10	313	605	292	17	−1.7 (−2.2, −1.0)
Diagnosis	− 0.20	112	157	45	4	−0.7 (−0.9, −0.6)
Radiation therapy (RT)	− 0.27	43	48	5	1	−0.2 (−0.2, −0.1)
Radical prostatectomy (RP)	− 0.33	32	68	35	6	−2.0 (−2.7, −0.6)
Active surveillance	− 0.03	28	48	20	106	−3.2 (−15.8, 0)
2 months – 1 year post RT	− 0.22	43	48	5	4	−0.9 (−1.6, −0.5)
2 months – 1 year post RP	− 0.23	32	68	35	30	−6.9 (−9.1, −2.7)
Post-recovery period:	− 0.05	75	116	41
- non-overdiagnosed	−0.05	75	71	−4	109	−5.5 (−36.4, 0)
- overdiagnosed	−0.05	0	45	45	215	−10.8 (−30.3, 0)
Palliative therapy	− 0.40	40	26	−14	−35	14.1 (5.1, 26.9)
Terminal illness	− 0.60	31	22	−9	−4	2.6 (2.6, 3.3) +
Total life-years adjustment due to quality of life effects (sum of all health states)						−16.7 (−93.8, 24.4)
Percentage adjustment to total life-years gained due to quality of life effects						−23% (−128%, +34%)
QALYs gained due to screening						56.0 (−20.7, 97.1)

^*The difference in the number of men in the screened and unscreened screnario is multiplied by the duration of the health states (Table 1).

^‡The difference in life-years for each health state is multiplied by the utility loss to calculate the adjustment for quality of life.