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. 2016 Jul 15;6(16):5596–5613. doi: 10.1002/ece3.2310

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© 2016 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Parameter τ that describes within‐season frost risk (A), standard deviation in the length of the favorable season (referred to as season; (B) and standard deviation of season beginning date (C) per location shown according to mean season length. Increasing values of τ mean decreasing frost risk. Mean season lengths (mean daily temperature >10°C), values of τ and standard deviations of season length and beginning date were estimated from data on daily mean temperatures during 1961–2012 from 38 arbitrary locations in Sweden (see text for details; Fig. S1). The regression equation in (A) is τ = 0.116 × (mean season length) − 0.223 (regression model F _1,36 = 187, P < 0.0001) and in (C) SD(season beginning) = 19.5 − 0.066 × (mean season length) (regression model F _1,36 = 62.3, P < 0.0001).