Table S1.
Parameter | Units | Prior | Value | Reference |
Fixed | ||||
γ | d−1 | 0.2 | (10) | |
μ | d−1 | 1/(61×365) | (56) | |
α | d−1 | 0.004 | (10, 12) | |
d−1 | 0.2 | (10, 12) | ||
ρ | d−1 | 1/600 | (52) | |
β | d−1 | 1 | (10, 11, 57) | |
Calibrated | ||||
θ | d−1 | [0, 2] | 0.34 [0.28 0.41] | |
λ | mm−1 | [0, 1] | 0.049 [0.040 0.061] | |
σ | – | [0, 0.5] | 0.019 [0.016 0.021] | |
ω | – | [0, 2] | 0.86 [0.824 0.889] | |
c | – | [1, 2] | 1.40 [1.375 1.410] | |
* | – | [1, 500] | 301 [204 416] |
For the calibrated parameters, the 95% confidence intervals of the posterior distribution are also shown.
Initial number of infected in the region of Diourbel equally distributed among arrondissements.