Table S1.

Fixed and calibrated parameters of the best performing model (A in Table S2)

Parameter	Units	Prior	Value	Reference
Fixed
γ	d−1		0.2	(10)
μ	d−1		1/(61×365)	(56)
α	d−1		0.004	(10, 12)
${\mu }_B$	d−1		0.2	(10, 12)
ρ	d−1		1/600	(52)
β	d−1		1	(10, 11, 57)
Calibrated
θ	d−1	[0, 2]	0.34 [0.28 0.41]
λ	mm−1	[0, 1]	0.049 [0.040 0.061]
σ	–	[0, 0.5]	0.019 [0.016 0.021]
ω	–	[0, 2]	0.86 [0.824 0.889]
c	–	[1, 2]	1.40 [1.375 1.410]
$I_0$*	–	[1, 500]	301 [204 416]

For the calibrated parameters, the 95% confidence intervals of the posterior distribution are also shown.

^*Initial number of infected in the region of Diourbel equally distributed among arrondissements.