Table S2.
Model | Mobility fluxes* | Overcrowding* | Precipitation | Bias correction† | IC‡ | Parameters | Log-likelihood§ | DIC | R2 overall | R2 Dakar | R2 Diourbel | R2 Thiés |
A | + | + | + | + | c | 6 | −3,256 | 6,533 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.78 | 0.20 |
B | + | + | + | − | c | 5 | −3,328 | 6,669 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.69 | 0.41 |
C | + | + | + | + | d | 5 | −3,279 | 6,573 | 0.75 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.04 |
D | − | + | + | + | a | 6 | −3,308 | 6,631 | 0.72 | 0.71 | 0.75 | −0.47 |
E | + | − | + | + | c | 5 | −3,595 | 7,204 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.08 | −0.02 |
F | − | − | + | − | a | 4 | −3,641 | 7,295 | 0.12 | 0.60 | −0.19 | 0.31 |
G | + | + | − | + | c | 5 | −3,302 | 6,615 | 0.73 | 0.22 | 0.81 | 0.13 |
H¶ | + | + | + | − | c | 7 | −3,459 | 6,943 | 0.54 | −0.50 | 0.73 | −0.50 |
+, Denotes the inclusion of the corresponding mechanism in the model; −, denotes its absence.
Note that human mobility fluxes and overcrowding both depend on human mobility estimates but can be taken into account separately. See Model Selection for more details.
Absence of bias correction with .
Initial number of infected; a, calibrated (all arrondissements); c, calibrated (only Diourbel); and d, fixed (only Diourbel).
Highest log-likelihood value in the posterior sample.
For model H, human mobility has been determined using a gravity model (e.g., ref. 10) instead of deriving it from mobile phone data.