. 2016 May 23;113(23):6421–6426. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1522305113

Table S2.

Comparison of models including different mechanisms (see Model Selection) using the DIC as well as the coefficient of determination R², computed including weekly case data from all or from one selected region

Model	Mobility fluxes^*	Overcrowding^*	Precipitation	Bias correction^†	IC^‡	Parameters	Log-likelihood^§	DIC	R² overall	R² Dakar	R² Diourbel	R² Thiés
A	+	+	+	+	c	6	−3,256	6,533	0.77	0.72	0.78	0.20
B	+	+	+	−	c	5	−3,328	6,669	0.71	0.68	0.69	0.41
C	+	+	+	+	d	5	−3,279	6,573	0.75	0.73	0.75	0.04
D	−	+	+	+	a	6	−3,308	6,631	0.72	0.71	0.75	−0.47
E	+	−	+	+	c	5	−3,595	7,204	0.25	0.10	0.08	−0.02
F	−	−	+	−	a	4	−3,641	7,295	0.12	0.60	−0.19	0.31
G	+	+	−	+	c	5	−3,302	6,615	0.73	0.22	0.81	0.13
H^¶	+	+	+	−	c	7	−3,459	6,943	0.54	−0.50	0.73	−0.50

+, Denotes the inclusion of the corresponding mechanism in the model; −, denotes its absence.

Note that human mobility fluxes and overcrowding both depend on human mobility estimates but can be taken into account separately. See Model Selection for more details.

^{^†}

Absence of bias correction with $c = 1$ .

^{^‡}

Initial number of infected; a, calibrated (all arrondissements); c, calibrated (only Diourbel); and d, fixed (only Diourbel).

^{^§}

Highest log-likelihood value in the posterior sample.

^{^¶}

For model H, human mobility has been determined using a gravity model (e.g., ref. 10) instead of deriving it from mobile phone data.