. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Sep 1.

Published in final edited form as: Diabetes Obes Metab. 2016 Jun 14;18(9):899–906. doi: 10.1111/dom.12686

Table 2.

Predictive statistics of 10-year risk prediction models

				Continuous NRI			Categorical NRI (25% predicted risk cut-point)

	C-statistic (95% CI)	Difference in C- statistic (95% CI)	P-value for difference	Overall NRI (95% CI)^*	Event NRI (95% CI)^*	Non-event NRI (95% CI)^*	Overall NRI (95% CI)^*	Event NRI (95% CI)^*	Non-event NRI (95% CI)^*	Relative IDI (95% CI)^*

Model 1 (Self- reported)	0.667 (0.64, 0.70)	--	--	--	--	--				--
Model 2 (+ clinical variables)	0.683 (0.65, 0.71)	0.016^† (0.00, 0.03)	0.032^†	0.42^† (0.26, 0.56)	0.18^† (0.07, 0.29)	0.23^† (0.13, 0.34)	0.07^† (0.03, 0.12)	-0.02^† (−0.04, 0.00)	0.09^† (0.06, 0.14)	0.28^† (0.21, 0.36)
Model 3 (+ HbA1c)	0.694 (0.66, 0.72)	0.011^‡ (0.00, 0.02)	0.021^‡	0.25^‡ (0.11, 0.40)	−0.02^‡ (−0.13, 0.10)	0.27^‡ (0.17, 0.37)	0.02^‡ (−0.01, 0.06)	0.01^‡ (−0.01, 0.03)	0.02^‡ (−0.01, 0.05)	0.08^‡ (0.04, 0.11)
Model 4 (+ additional biomarkers)	0.716 (0.69, 0.74)	0.022^§ (0.01, 0.04)	0.003^§	0.32^§ (0.17, 0.47)	0.14^§ (0.04, 0.25)	0.18^§ (0.07, 0.29)	0.03^§ (−0.02, 0.07)	−0.03^§ (−0.06, −0.01)	0.06^§ (0.02, 0.09)	0.15^§ (0.09, 0.22)

Bias-corrected 95% CIs are reported for NRI and IDI,and were obtained usingbootstrap with 1,000replications

^†

vs. Model 1

^‡

vs. Model 2

^§

vs. Model 3

Model 1 includes age, sex, race, education, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, family history of CVD, glucose-lowering medication use, antihypertensive medication use, cholesterol-lowering medication use, recent onset of diabetes, BMI, interaction of sex with glucose-lowering medication use, and interaction of race with BMI.

Model 2 additionally includes LDL-c, HDL-c, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, interaction of sex with triglycerides, and interaction of race with triglycerides.

Model 3 additionally includes HbA1c.

Model 4 additionally includes 1/B2M, eGFR-Cr, and eGFR-CysC.