Table 3.
Nine BMI groups versus all-cause mortality in never-smokers, excluding chronic disease at baseline and 5 years of follow-up in geographical regions with more than 1 million participants
| 15·0–<18·5 kg/m2 | 18·5–<20·0 kg/m2 | 20·0–<22·5 kg/m2 | 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2 | 25·0–<27·5 kg/m2 | 27·5–<30·0 kg/m2 | 30·0–<35·0 kg/m2 | 35·0–<40·0 kg/m2 | 40·0–<60·0 kg/m2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe* | ||||||||||
| Participants/deaths | 13 398/675 | 42 584/1508 | 199 369/7449 | 306 566/13278 | 249 929/12 850 | 153 147/8935 | 127 536/8386 | 32 749/2424 | 10 322/972 | |
| HR (95% CI) | 1·79 (1·63–1·97) | 1·25 (1·14–1·38) | 1·02 (0·97–1·07) | 1·00 (0·97–1·03) | 1·07 (1·06–1·09) | 1·21 (1·18–1·25) | 1·52 (1·45–1·58) | 1·99 (1·87–2·12) | 3·04 (2·84–3·27) | |
| North America† | ||||||||||
| Participants/deaths | 22 028/3846 | 67 114/8597 | 274 883/36 200 | 359 022/54 995 | 317 721/53 464 | 168 183/28 471 | 149 807/25 348 | 39 379/6299 | 16 950/2702 | |
| HR (95% CI) | 1·51 (1·34–1·70) | 1·09 (1·02–1·16) | 1·01 (0·96–1·06) | 1·00 (0·97–1·03) | 1·06 (1·04–1·07) | 1·17 (1·12–1·22) | 1·39 (1·30–1·49) | 1·93 (1·74–2·13) | 2·58 (2·26–2·93) | |
| East Asia‡ | ||||||||||
| Participants/deaths | 46 979/7178 | 94 409/10 206 | 301 242/27 537 | 336 758/28 755 | 194 857/17 070 | 72 133/6950 | 25 658/2753 | 1941/231 | 408/104 | |
| HR (95% CI) | 1·36 (1·25–1·49) | 1·11 (1·04–1·18) | 0·99 (0·97–1·02) | 1·00 (0·97–1·03) | 1·07 (1·04–1·11) | 1·28 (1·21–1·35) | 1·54 (1·42–1·67) | 2·01 (1·59–2·54) | 2·38 (1·33–4·24) | |
| p value for heterogeneityl¶ | 0·0045 | 0·28 | 0·42 | .. | 0·89 | 0·46 | 0·20 | 0·48 | <0·0001 | |
Normal weight and overweight are subdivided, and the reference category is BMI 22·5 kg/m2 to less than 25·0 kg/m2. Numbers of studies, participants, and deaths are shown after exclusions from these prespecified principal analyses. CIs were calculated using floating variance estimates (reflecting independent variability within each group, including the reference group). Results from studies in south Asia and Australia and New Zealand are in figure 1, with details in the appendix (p 20).
89 studies; 1 135 600 participants; 56 477 deaths.
40 studies; 1 415 087 participants; 219 922 deaths.
46 studies; 1 074 385 participants; 100 784 deaths.
p value for heterogenity is for all three regions.