Table 1.
1958–2012 | 1972–2012 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | SD | Min | Max | b | SE | R 2 | P | b | SE | R 2a | P a | |
Sowing | −97 (Sep. 25) | 4 | −105 | −87 | 0.087 | 0.030 | 13.6 | 0.006 | 0.225 | 0.085 | 20.8 | 0.012 |
Emergence | −85 (Oct. 7) | 5 | −93 | −72 | 0.021 | 0.044 | 0.4 | 0.639 | 0.358 | 0.114 | 20.7 | 0.003 |
Shooting | 76 (Mar. 16) | 9 | 59 | 100 | −0.167 | 0.079 | 7.8 | 0.039 | 0.215 | 0.174 | 5.3 | 0.224 |
Heading | 108 (Apr. 18) | 8 | 93 | 123 | −0.127 | 0.069 | 6.0 | 0.071 | −0.104 | 0.176 | 17.8 | 0.556 |
First flower | 133 (May 13) | 5 | 118 | 149 | −0.064 | 0.046 | 3.5 | 0.169 | −0.152 | 0.103 | 33.2 | 0.267 |
Full flower | 149 (May 29) | 10 | 127 | 167 | −0.363 | 0.065 | 37.1 | <0.001 | −0.398 | 0.131 | 57.4 | 0.004 |
Harvest | 208 (Jul. 27) | 6 | 195 | 221 | 0.138 | 0.050 | 12.4 | 0.008 | 0.251 | 0.140 | 10.0 | 0.081 |
Yield (t/ha) | 4.20 | 1.36 | 1.55 | 6.57 | 0.064 | 0.008 | 56.9 | <0.001 | 0.007 | 0.019 | 62.5 | 0.720 |
Density (plants/m2) | 383 | 85 | 242 | 551 | 4.39 | 0.89 | 38.3 | <0.001 | −1.27 | 1.12 | 69.0 | 0.264 |
Grains/ear | 34 | 6 | 17 | 52 | 0.163 | 0.080 | 9.6 | 0.049 | 0.260 | 0.142 | 11.2 | 0.074 |
Annual mean temperature (°C) | 8.3 | 1.0 | 6.6 | 10.3 | 0.041 | 0.007 | 40.0 | <0.001 | ||||
Annual total precipitation mm | 605 | 131 | 313 | 841 | 3.58 | 1.11 | 17.1 | 0.002 |
b represents the per year trend which is presented together with its standard error, % variance accounted for (R 2), and an indication of statistical significance (P). Phenological and yield data for 1958–2012, other agronomic data for 1972–2012, and climatological data for 1961–2012
The regression models for 1972–2012 involve just a single variety in use and include a dummy variable (see text for details)
a R 2 indicates the overall model, but P just the significance of the trend through time