. 2016 Mar 10;27(9):2842–2850. doi: 10.1681/ASN.2015070763

Table 2.

Risk of adverse events over 25 years of follow-up, by race/APOL1 status

	White Participants	Black APOL1 Low-Risk Participants	Black APOL1 High-Risk Participants
Incident hypertension
Events (n)	4540	891	125
Rate per 1000 person-years	50.98 (49.52–52.49)	70.31 (65.85–75.09)^a	72.47 (60.82–86.36)^a
Demographic-adjusted IRR	Reference	1.42 (1.32–1.53)^a	1.49 (1.25–1.78)^a
Fully adjusted IRR	Reference	1.13 (1.04–1.22)^a	1.21 (1.00–1.45)^a
Incident diabetes
Events (n)	2698	987	167
Rate per 1000 person-years	14.61 (14.07–15.17)	23.10 (21.71–24.59)^a	27.51 (23.64–32.02)^a ^b
Demographic-adjusted IRR	Reference	1.60 (1.49–1.73)^a	1.92 (1.64–2.24)^a ^b
Fully adjusted IRR	Reference	1.26 (1.16–1.38)^a	1.41 (1.20–1.67)^a
Incident cardiovascular disease
Events (n)	2381	679	99
Rate per 1000 person-years	11.34 (10.90–11.81)	11.94 (11.08–12.88)	11.86 (9.74–14.44)
Demographic-adjusted IRR	Reference	1.18 (1.08–1.28)^a	1.25 (1.02–1.53)^a
Fully adjusted IRR	Reference	0.85 (0.77–0.93)^a	0.88 (0.72–1.09)
AKI during follow-up
Events (n)	1394	510	82
Rate per 1000 person-years	5.99 (5.68–6.31)	8.36 (7.64–9.09)^a	9.12 (7.15–11.10)^a
Demographic-adjusted IRR	Reference	1.54 (1.39–1.70)^a	1.71 (1.37–2.13)^a
Fully adjusted IRR	Reference	1.04 (0.92–1.17)	1.11 (0.88–1.40)
Hospitalizations during follow-up
Events (n)	42,470	12,859	1981
Rate per 1000 person-years	182.29 (180.56–184.03)	208.96 (205.35–212.57)^a	216.65 (207.11–226.19)^a
Demographic-adjusted IRR	Reference	1.23 (1.21–1.26)^a	1.32 (1.26–1.38)^a ^b
Fully adjusted IRR	Reference	0.92 (0.90–0.95)^a	0.93 (0.89–0.97)^a
Pre-ESRD hospitalizations during follow-up
Events (n)	41,748	11,874	1745
Rate per 1000 person-years	179.51 (177.79–181.23)	194.71 (191.21–198.22)^a	194.12 (185.02–203.23)^a
Demographic-adjusted IRR	Reference	1.17 (1.14–1.19)^a	1.20 (1.14–1.26)^a
Fully adjusted IRR	Reference	0.89 (0.87–0.91)^a	0.86 (0.82–0.91)^a
Incident ESRD
Events (n)	153	145	34
Rate per 1000 person-years	0.65 (0.55–0.76)	2.35 (2.00–2.77)^a	3.76 (2.69–5.26)^a ^b
Demographic-adjusted IRR	Reference	3.90 (3.10–4.91)^a	6.42 (4.42–9.33)^a ^b
Fully adjusted IRR	Reference	1.87 (1.42–2.46)^a	2.84 (1.88–4.30)^a ^b
All-cause mortality
Events (n)	3564	1246	186
Rate per 1000 person-years	15.30 (14.80–15.81)	20.25 (19.15–21.40)^a	20.34 (17.62–23.49)^a
Demographic-adjusted IRR	Reference	1.52 (1.42–1.62)^a	1.63 (1.40–1.89)^a
Fully adjusted IRR	Reference	1.06 (0.99–1.15)	1.03 (0.88–1.20)

Persons with a history of hypertension were excluded from the incident hypertension analysis; persons with a history of diabetes were excluded from the incident diabetes analysis; persons with eGFR<15 ml/min per 1.73 m² at baseline were excluded from the incident AKI and ESRD analyses. Incident AKI was censored at the development of ESRD. IRR, incident rate ratio.

P<0.05 for the comparison of the black APOL1 low-risk subgroup versus the white subgroup as well as for the comparison of the black APOL1 high-risk subgroup versus the white subgroup.

P<0.05 for the comparison of the black APOL1 high-risk subgroup versus the black APOL1 low-risk subgroup.