Table 1.

Piecewise Trajectories of Past 2-Week 10+ High-Intensity and 5+ Binge Drinking among U.S. Young Adults: Unconditional Growth Models and Time-Invariant Covariates

Unconditional growth models	Mean estimates (unstandardized)
	I (Age 18)		S1 (Age 18–21/22)		S2 (Age 21/22–25/26)
	Est	p	Est	p	Est	p
10+ High-intensity drinking	0.175	<.001	0.046	<.001	−0.033	0.001
5+ Binge drinking	0.391	<.001	0.146	<.001	−0.028	0.066
	Correlations (standardized)
	I, S1		I, S2		S1, S2
	r	p	r	p	r	p
10+ High-intensity drinking	−0.377	<.001	0.101	0.473	−0.824	<.001
5+ Binge drinking	−0.269	0.008	−0.022	0.866	−0.406	0.002
Time-invariant covariate modelsa	Coefficients (standardized)
	I		S1		S2
	B	p	β	p	β	p
10+ High-intensity drinking
Male	0.177	<.001	0.109	0.001	−0.110	0.125
White race/ethnicity	0.067	0.025	0.042	0.201	−0.072	0.257
At least one parent with college degree	0.010	0.760	−0.033	0.352	0.094	0.156
Average high school grades B- or higher	0.027	0.488	0.022	0.611	−0.196	0.094
Past 30-day cigarette use (age 18)	0.246	<.001	−0.065	0.238	0.005	0.950
Past 12-month marijuana use (age 18)	0.175	<.001	−0.006	0.901	−0.081	0.316
Past 12-month other illicit drug use (age 18)	0.224	<.001	−0.095	0.046	−0.060	0.446
College attendance (age 19/20)	--	--	0.108	<.001	−0.206	0.037
5+ Binge drinking
Male	0.152	<.001	0.108	0.002	0.085	0.106
White race/ethnicity	0.069	0.016	0.080	0.024	−0.042	0.416
At least one parent with college degree	0.020	0.513	−0.017	0.653	0.031	0.553
Average high school grades B- or higher	0.076	0.039	−0.008	0.860	−0.120	0.104
Past 30-day cigarette use (age 18)	0.310	<.001	−0.120	0.031	0.058	0.420
Past 12-month marijuana use (age 18)	0.340	<.001	−0.023	0.632	−0.090	0.198
Past 12-month other illicit drug use (age 18)	0.228	<.001	−0.114	0.019	0.034	0.600
College attendance (age 19/20)	--	--	0.179	<.001	−0.139	0.025
	Χ2	(df)	p	CFI	TLI	RMSEA
Model fit statistics
10+ High-intensity drinking
Unconditional model	4.132	(5)	0.531	1.000	1.006	<.001
Multivariable model	26.899	(22)	0.215	0.995	0.988	0.008
5+ Binge drinking
Unconditional model	3.555	(6)	0.737	1.000	1.006	<.001
Multivariable model	33.296	(23)	0.076	0.994	0.986	0.011

Notes: Ns(unweighted) for 10+ high-intensity drinking = 3,716; for 5+ binge drinking = 3,700. I = Intercept; S1 = Slope 1; S2 = Slope 2.

^aAll covariates entered simultaneously in time-invariant covariate models.