Table 8:
ROC AUC (c-statistic) prediction results for clinical outcomes based on 1897 validation patients’ first 24 h of query clinical items.
| Property | Death | ICU Life Support | Hospital Discharge / Length of Stay | Readmission | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evaluation period | 30 days | 2 days | 4 days | 1 week | 2 days | 4 days | 1 week | 2 week | 30 days |
| Patients included | 1890 | 1772 | 1772 | 1772 | 1742 | 1742 | 1742 | 1742 | 1890 |
| Patients w/outcome, n (%) | 35 (1.9) | 17 (1.0) | 28 (1.6) | 41 (2.3) | 387 (22.2) | 1020 (58.6) | 1380 (79.2) | 1570 (90.1) | 157 (8.3) |
| ROC AUC (c-stat) | 0.84 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.84 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.82 | 0.68 |
| ROC AUC 95% CI | 0.75-0.94 | 0.80-0.95 | 0.76-0.90 | 0.79- 0.89 | 0.66-0.72 | 0.72-0.77 | 0.78-0.83 | 0.79-0.85 | 0.64-0.73 |
| Related Prediction Models | APACHE, MPM, SAPS 38 | CURB-65, PSI, SCAP, REA-ICU 39 | Tu et al. 40 , ISS, NISS, 41 CSI 42 | Amarasingham et al., 43 , LACE, 44 CMS 45 | |||||
| ROC AUC for Related | 0.75-0.90 | 0.69-0.81 | 0.69 (Only Tu et al. reports as ROC AUC) | 0.56-0.72 | |||||
Confidence intervals (95%) empirically estimated by bootstrapping 1000 data samples with replacement. ROC = Receiver Operating Characteristic; AUC = Area Under Curve; CI = Confidence Interval; APACHE = Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation; MPM = Mortality Probability Models; SAPS = Simplified Acute Physiology Score; CURB-65 = Confusion, Urea, Respiratory Rate, Blood Pressure, 65 Years Old; PSI = Pneumonia Severity Index; SCAP = Severity Community-Acquired Pneumonia; REA-ICU = Risk of Early Admission to ICU; ISS = Injury Severity Score; NISS = New Injury Severity Score; CSI = Computerized Severity Index; LACE = Length of Stay, Acuity, Comorbidity, Emergency Department Use; CMS = Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services