Table 2.

Prediction of clinical pregnancy (either ended as early pregnancy loss or live birth) and live birth by hCG-β levels and the fold increases of hCG-β levels between POD 12 and 14

Prediction by hCG-β levels
Pregnancy outcome	hCG-β	Cutoff (mIU/mL)	AUC (95 % CI)	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)	PPV (%)	NPV (%)	OR (95 % CI)	P value
Fresh cycle
Clinical pregnancy	POD 12	30.2	0.893 (0.868–0.919)	81.3	79.6	92.3	58.6	16.947 (11.309–25.396)	<0.001
	POD 14	70.5	0.951 (0.933–0.968)	88.4	85.2	94.7	71.1	44.037 (27.569–70.342)	<0.001
Live birth	POD 12	40.5	0.813 (0.782–0.844)	75.2	72.6	78.9	68.3	8.040 (5.826–11.095)	<0.001
	POD 14	104.5	0.850 (0.822–0.879)	80.3	74.1	80.8	73.4	11.667 (8.323–16.353)	<0.001
Frozen-thawed cycle
Clinical pregnancy	POD 12	31.5	0.825 (0.770–0.881)	80.4	71.1	90.0	52.7	10.065 (5.740–17.649)	<0.001
	POD 14	76.4	0.885 (0.840–0.930)	84.8	74.7	91.6	60.2	16.490 (9.085–29.931)	<0.001
Live birth	POD 12	43.5	0.776 (0.726–0.826)	72.6	71.7	77.2	66.5	6.729 (4.206–10.764)	<0.001
	POD 14	101.6	0.814 (0.767–0.861)	79.6	71.1	78.4	72.5	9.579 (5.865–15.643)	<0.001
Prediction by fold change of hCG-β level between POD 12 and 14
Pregnancy outcome	Cutoff Of increase (fold)		AUC (95 % CI)	Sensitivity (%)	Specificity (%)	PPV (%)	NPV (%)	OR (95 % CI)	P value
Fresh cycle
Clinical pregnancy	2.52		0.784 (0.738–0.829)	76.4	71.9	89.1	50.4	8.281 (5.748–11.930)	<0.001
Live birth	2.78		0.697 (0.658–0.737)	65.7	63.0	70.6	57.3	3.224 (2.400–4.332)	<0.001
Frozen-thawed cycle
Clinical pregnancy	2.37		0.823 (0.765–0.881)	81.1	71.1	89.8	53.2	9.962 (5.695–17.428)	<0.001
Live birth	2.60		0.726 (0.670–0.781)	71.6	64.5	72.7	63.2	4.585 (2.917–7.206)	<0.001

POD postovulatory day, AUC area under receiver operating characteristic curve, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value, OR odds ratio