Table 3.
Cutoffs of the fold changes of hCG-β for clinical pregnancy and live birth according to the initial hCG-β levels
| Pregnancy outcome | Sequential application | AUC (95 % CI) | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | OR (95 % CI) | P value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial hCG-β (mIU/mL) | Cutoff of increase (fold) | ||||||||
| Fresh cycles | |||||||||
| Clinical pregnancy | <30.2 | 2.85 | 0.761 (0.699–0.822) | 70.0 | 67.7 | 65.8 | 71.8 | 4.900 (2.813–8.536) | <0.001 |
| ≥30.2 | 2.56 | 0.771 (0.666–0.876) | 73.6 | 72.4 | 97.8 | 14.2 | 7.255 (3.134–16.792) | <0.001 | |
| Live birth | <40.5 | 2.87 | 0.723 (0.667–0.723) | 71.4 | 61.9 | 51.0 | 79.6 | 4.058 (2.465–6.682) | <0.001 |
| ≥40.5 | 2.79 | 0.592 (0.518–0.665) | 61.8 | 50.6 | 82.7 | 24.9 | 1.579 (0.983–2.535) | 0.039 | |
| Frozen-thawed cycles | |||||||||
| Clinical pregnancy | <31.5 | 2.51 | 0.775 (0.684–0.867) | 71.7 | 65.3 | 69.1 | 68.1 | 4.769 (2.062–11.030) | <0.001 |
| ≥31.5 | 2.38 | 0.805 (0.697–0.913) | 81.6 | 71.4 | 87.9 | 45.5 | 6.044 (4.118–8.871) | <0.001 | |
| Live birth | <43.5 | 2.72 | 0.679 (0.593–0.765) | 65.5 | 63.9 | 50.0 | 76.3 | 3.211 (1.607–6.412) | <0.001 |
| ≥43.5 | 2.56 | 0.692 (0.591–0.793) | 77.4 | 61.9 | 87.6 | 44.1 | 5.564 (2.672–11.589) | <0.001 | |
AUC area under receiver operating characteristic curve, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value, OR odds ratio