Table 1. Evaluated North American and Hawaiian bird taxa potentially considered extinct.
IUCN Red List category (http://www.birdlife.org/datazone/species accessed July 2016; CR(PE), Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct); EW, Extinct in the Wild; EX, Extinct), year of last reported sighting including controversial sightings reported up to 2009 (Elphick, Roberts & Reed, 2010—supplementary material), number of years with confirmed records (n). Sighting reliability estimates give the upper, mean and lower sighting reliabilities as described in the methods. p is the probability of a sighting record in 2009, TE estimated year of extinction, and TCI the upper 95% bound on that estimate of TE. Years highlighted in bold represent results that do not support extinction.
| Species | IUCN Red List | Last sighting | n | Sighting reliability | p | TE | TCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labrador duck (Camptorhynchus labradorius) | EX | 1878 | 13 | Upper | 3E−7 | 1880 | 1889 |
| Mean | 7E−7 | 1879 | 1889 | ||||
| Lower | 2E−6 | 1879 | 1890 | ||||
| Heath hen (Tympanuchus c. cupido) | EX | 1932 | 39 | Upper | 4E−15 | 1933 | 1936 |
| Mean | 7E−14 | 1933 | 1936 | ||||
| Lower | 1E−12 | 1933 | 1936 | ||||
| Laysan rail (Zapornia palmeri) | EX | 1945 | 29 | Upper | 7E−9 | 1946 | 1951 |
| Mean | 3E−8 | 1946 | 1952 | ||||
| Lower | 1E−7 | 1946 | 1952 | ||||
| Hawaiian rail (Zapornia sandwichensis) | EX | 1893 | 9 | Upper | 0.010 | 1905 | 1956 |
| Mean | 0.014 | 1903 | 1961 | ||||
| Lower | 0.018 | 1900 | 1965 | ||||
| Eskimo curlew (Numenius borealis) | CR(PE) | 2006 | 49 | Upper | 0.062 | 2003 | 2010 |
| Mean | 0.028 | 1999 | 2007 | ||||
| Lower | 0.004 | 1989 | 1997 | ||||
| Great auk (Pinguinus impennis) | EX | 1888 | 24 | Upper | 8E−10 | 1872 | 1879 |
| Mean | 1E−9 | 1865 | 1872 | ||||
| Lower | 1E−9 | 1855 | 1863 | ||||
| Passenger pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius) | EX | 1907 | 26 | Upper | 3E−15 | 1906 | 1909 |
| Mean | 2E−14 | 1905 | 1908 | ||||
| Lower | 8E−14 | 1904 | 1907 | ||||
| Carolina parakeet (Conuropsis carolinensis) | EX | 1950 | 50 | Upper | 1E−10 | 1946 | 1950 |
| Mean | 4E−10 | 1942 | 1947 | ||||
| Lower | 3E−10 | 1933 | 1938 | ||||
| Ivory-billed woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) | CR | 2006 | 68 | Upper | 0.065 | 2005 | 2010 |
| Mean | 0.019 | 2000 | 2006 | ||||
| Lower | 5E−4 | 1987 | 1993 | ||||
| ‘Alalā (Hawaiian crow) (Corvus hawaiiensis) | EW | 2003 | 68 | Upper | 0.220 | 2007 | 2015 |
| Mean | 0.251 | 2007 | 2017 | ||||
| Lower | 0.286 | 2008 | 2018 | ||||
| Kaua’i ‘ō‘ō (Moho braccatus) | EX | 2001 | 43 | Upper | 0.103 | 2002 | 2013 |
| Mean | 0.080 | 2000 | 2012 | ||||
| Lower | 0.055 | 1996 | 2010 | ||||
| O‘ahu ‘ō‘ō (Moho apicalis) | EX | 1976 | 10 | Upper | 0.292 | 1994 | 2113 |
| Mean | – | – | – | ||||
| Lower | – | – | – | ||||
| Bishop’s ‘ō‘ō(Moloka‘i) (Moho bishopi) | EX | 1904 | 5 | Upper | 3E−4 | 1907 | 1919 |
| Mean | – | – | – | ||||
| Lower | – | – | – | ||||
| Hawai‘i ‘ō‘ō (Moho nobilis) | EX | 1976 | 24 | Upper | 0.008 | 1974 | 1991 |
| Mean | 0.006 | 1967 | 1985 | ||||
| Lower | 0.001 | 1944 | 1963 | ||||
| San Clemente [Bewick’s] wren (Thryomanes bewickii leucophrys) | – | 1941 | 20 | Upper | 7E−7 | 1944 | 1951 |
| Mean | 1E−6 | 1944 | 1951 | ||||
| Lower | 3E−6 | 1944 | 1952 | ||||
| Laysan millerbird (Acrocephalus f. familiaris) | EX | 1916 | 12 | Upper | 2E−6 | 1919 | 1927 |
| Mean | 4E−6 | 1919 | 1928 | ||||
| Lower | 9E−6 | 1919 | 1929 | ||||
| Kama‘o (Myadestes myadestinus) | EX | 1999 | 50 | Upper | 0.069 | 2001 | 2011 |
| Mean | 0.067 | 2000 | 2011 | ||||
| Lower | 0.050 | 1997 | 2009 | ||||
| Oloma‘o (Moloka‘i) (Myadestes lanaiensis rutha) | CR(PE) | 2005 | 16 | Upper | 0.188 | 2001 | 2025 |
| Mean | 0.154 | 1998 | 2024 | ||||
| Lower | 0.129 | 1993 | 2024 | ||||
| Oloma‘o (Lāna‘i) (Myadestes l. lanaiensis) | CR(PE) | 1934 | 9 | Upper | 0.001 | 1941 | 1960 |
| Mean | 0.003 | 1941 | 1963 | ||||
| Lower | 0.005 | 1942 | 1967 | ||||
| Bachman’s warbler (Vermivora bachmanii) | CR(PE) | 2001 | 61 | Upper | 0.004 | 1997 | 2002 |
| Mean | 0.001 | 1993 | 1998 | ||||
| Lower | 4E−5 | 1981 | 1987 | ||||
| Dusky seaside sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus nigrescens) | EX | 1980 | 48 | Upper | 6E−5 | 1983 | 1988 |
| Mean | 1E−4 | 1983 | 1989 | ||||
| Lower | 2E−4 | 1983 | 1989 | ||||
| ‘Ō‘ū (Kaua‘i) (Psittirostra psittacea) | CR(PE) | 1997 | 33 | Upper | 0.057 | 2000 | 2010 |
| Mean | 0.060 | 1999 | 2010 | ||||
| Lower | 0.055 | 1996 | 2010 | ||||
| ‘Ō‘ū (Hawai‘i) (Psittirostra psittacea) | CR(PE) | 1987 | 42 | Upper | 0.004 | 1990 | 1998 |
| Mean | 0.007 | 1991 | 2000 | ||||
| Lower | 0.013 | 1991 | 2001 | ||||
| ‘Ō‘ū (Moloka‘i) (Psittirostra psittacea) | CR(PE) | 1965 | 6 | Upper | 0.015 | 1940 | 1978 |
| Mean | 0.010 | 1929 | 1964 | ||||
| Lower | – | – | – | ||||
| ‘Ō‘ū (Lāna‘i) (Psittirostra psittacea) | CR(PE) | 1927 | 8 | Upper | 9E−4 | 1933 | 1951 |
| Mean | 0.001 | 1933 | 1953 | ||||
| Lower | 0.002 | 1933 | 1955 | ||||
| ‘Ō‘ū (Maui) (Psittirostra psittacea) | CR(PE) | 1945 | 7 | Upper | 0.004 | 1927 | 1954 |
| Mean | 0.004 | 1919 | 1947 | ||||
| Lower | 0.003 | 1911 | 1938 | ||||
| Greater koa-finch (Rhodacanthis palmeri) | EX | 1967 | 8 | Upper | 0.007 | 1943 | 1970 |
| Mean | 0.003 | 1928 | 1952 | ||||
| Lower | 7E−4 | 1911 | 1927 | ||||
| Greater ‘amakihi (Hemignathus sagittirostris) | EX | 1901 | 5 | Upper | 9E−5 | 1903 | 1912 |
| Mean | – | – | – | ||||
| Lower | – | – | – | ||||
| Lesser ‘akialoa (Hemignathus obscurus) | EX | 1940 | 19 | Upper | 5E−6 | 1923 | 1934 |
| Mean | 4E−6 | 1917 | 1928 | ||||
| Lower | 3E−6 | 1911 | 1923 | ||||
| Greater ‘akialoa (Kaua‘i) (Hemignathus ellisianus stejnegeri) | EX | 1995 | 21 | Upper | 0.027 | 1991 | 2004 |
| Mean | 0.016 | 1985 | 2000 | ||||
| Lower | 0.009 | 1978 | 1994 | ||||
| Nukupu‘u (Kaua‘i) (Hemignathus lucidus hanapepe) | CR(PE) | 1996 | 24 | Upper | 0.179 | 2002 | 2022 |
| Mean | 0.198 | 2001 | 2028 | ||||
| Lower | 0.083 | 1983 | 2019 | ||||
| Nukupu‘u (Maui) (Hemignathus lucidus affinis) | CR(PE) | 1996 | 24 | Upper | 0.256 | 2004 | 2029 |
| Mean | 0.346 | 2007 | 2047 | ||||
| Lower | 0.322 | 2001 | 2086 | ||||
| O‘ahu ‘alauahio (Paroreomyza maculata) | CR(PE) | 2002 | 46 | Upper | 0.218 | 2006 | 2019 |
| Mean | 0.191 | 2004 | 2020 | ||||
| Lower | 0.099 | 1995 | 2016 | ||||
| Maui ‘alauahio (Lāna‘i) (Paroreomyza montana) | EX | 1937 | 10 | Upper | 7E−4 | 1942 | 1958 |
| Mean | 0.001 | 1942 | 1960 | ||||
| Lower | 0.002 | 1942 | 1961 | ||||
| Kākāwahie (Paroreomyza flammea) | EX | 1963 | 16 | Upper | 0.006 | 1970 | 1987 |
| Mean | 0.008 | 1969 | 1988 | ||||
| Lower | 0.009 | 1968 | 1989 | ||||
| Maui ‘akepa (Loxops coccineus ochraceus) | EX | 1995 | 21 | Upper | 0.147 | 2001 | 2019 |
| Mean | 0.144 | 1999 | 2021 | ||||
| Lower | 0.122 | 1995 | 2021 | ||||
| Oahu ‘akepa (Loxops coccineus rufus) | EX | 1976 | 7 | Upper | 0.125 | 1965 | 2053 |
| Mean | 0.097 | 1950 | 2044 | ||||
| Lower | – | – | – | ||||
| Hawai‘i mamo (Drepanis pacifica) | EX | 1960 | 12 | Upper | 0.033 | 1943 | 1996 |
| Mean | 0.035 | 1935 | 1996 | ||||
| Lower | 0.041 | 1926 | 2000 | ||||
| Black mamo (Drepanis funerea) | EX | 1955 | 6 | Upper | 0.024 | 1944 | 1987 |
| Mean | – | – | – | ||||
| Lower | – | – | – | ||||
| Laysan honeycreeper [‘apapane] (Himatione sanguinea freethii) | EX | 1923 | 14 | Upper | 6E−4 | 1930 | 1950 |
| Mean | 9E−4 | 1930 | 1952 | ||||
| Lower | 0.001 | 1929 | 1954 | ||||
| Po‘o-uli (Melamprosops phaeosoma) | CR(PE) | 2004 | 27 | Upper | 0.037 | 2005 | 2009 |
| Mean | 0.050 | 2005 | 2009 | ||||
| Lower | 0.068 | 2005 | 2010 |