This demonstrates results of the HIV treatment cascade over
time, examining the proportion of patients alive (vertical axis) who are
unlinked, on ART, or virologically suppressed (horizontal axis).
Current Pace strategy: The hatched black bar on the
left demonstrates literature-based data to inform the current South
Africa cascade of care. The grey bar represents model-based results
after 1 year of the current cascade and demonstrates a near match to the
black bar, except for some anticipated modest improvement over time,
with slight decreases among those unlinked with concomitant increases in
those suppressed. Bars in blue provide current cascade results over
5-year (light blue) and 10-year (dark blue) and further demonstrate
modest improvements in the cascade. At 10 years, the current cascade
shows 44% of those alive are virologically suppressed.
UNAIDS Target strategy and Alternative
UNAIDS Target strategy. This figure utilizes alternative
input parameters (lower testing and linkage rates and higher rates of
virologic suppression), compared to the UNAIDS Target
strategy base case to achieve viral suppression goals in the
Alternative UNAIDS Target strategy, without
81% of persons on ART. The hatched white bar on the far right
demonstrates the aspirational 90-90-90 cascade with 73%
virologically suppressed. Model output demonstrates 90-90-90 basecase
results that might be achieved in 5 and 10 years (in light and dark
green) and cascade states at 5 and 10 years in the Alternative
UNAIDS Target strategy (light and dark purple). While the
UNAIDS Target strategy and the Alternative
UNAIDS Target strategy have similar viral suppression rates
(~73%), they differ in the proportion of persons on ART
(81% in the UNAIDS Target strategy and
75% in the Alternative UNAIDS Target strategy).
The denominators (number alive) in these three strategies over time
differ as a result of differences in the number of transmissions and
deaths.