Appendix Table 1.
Sensitivity of clinical outcomes to variation in key input parameters in a modeling analysis of 90-90-90 in South Africa.
| Strategy | Total Transmissions | Cumulative Deaths | Years of life | 0–5, 5year |
Cumulative Orphans | Total,
10 year |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 year | 10 year | 5 year | 10 year | 5 year | 10 year | 0–5, 10 year |
Total, 5 year |
|||
| Basecase | ||||||||||
|
| ||||||||||
| Current Pace | 2,384,000 | 4,413,000 | 2,639,000 | 4,985,000 | 31,673,000 | 61,209,000 | 211,000 | 460,000 | 1,538,000 | 2,979,000 |
| UNAIDS Target | 1,511,000 | 2,362,000 | 1,466,000 | 2,507,000 | 34,675,000 | 74,549,000 | 105,000 | 184,000 | 812,000 | 1,290,000 |
| Difference | 873,000 | 2,051,000 | 1,174,000 | 2,478,000 | 3,002,000 | 13,340,000 | 106,000 | 276,000 | 726,000 | 1,689,000 |
|
| ||||||||||
| Duration of acute infection, 3 months | ||||||||||
|
| ||||||||||
| Current Pace | 2,010,000 | 3,474,000 | 2,618,000 | 4,799,000 | 30,796,000 | 57,518,000 | 207,000 | 433,000 | 1,522,000 | 2,831,000 |
| UNAIDS Target | 1,254,000 | 1,880,000 | 1,453,000 | 2,455,000 | 33,800,000 | 70,394,000 | 103,000 | 176,000 | 802,000 | 1,249,000 |
| Difference | 756,000 | 1,594,000 | 1,165,000 | 2,344,000 | 3,004,000 | 12,876,000 | 104,000 | 257,000 | 720,000 | 1,582,000 |
|
| ||||||||||
| Duration of acute infection, 12 months | ||||||||||
|
| ||||||||||
| Current Pace | 3,547,000 | 8,187,000 | 2,700,000 | 5,598,000 | 34,235,000 | 74,362,000 | 219,000 | 547,000 | 1,585,000 | 3,469,000 |
| UNAIDS Target | 2,353,000 | 4,391,000 | 1,501,000 | 2,696,000 | 37,317,000 | 89,402,000 | 110,000 | 210,000 | 839,000 | 1,440,000 |
| Difference | 1,194,000 | 3,796,000 | 1,199,000 | 2,902,000 | 3,082,000 | 15,040,000 | 109,000 | 337,000 | 746,000 | 2,029,000 |
|
| ||||||||||
| Alternative 90-90-90 Cascade, 75% on ART, 72% virologically suppressed | ||||||||||
|
| ||||||||||
| Alternative Target | 1,559,000 | 2,438,000 | 1,685,000 | 2,705,000 | 33,998,000 | 72,780,000 | 125,000 | 208,000 | 953,000 | 1,453,000 |
| Difference | 825,000 | 1,975,000 | 954,000 | 2,280,000 | 2,325,000 | 11,571,000 | 86,000 | 252,000 | 585,000 | 1,526,000 |
Red numbers indicate changes for UNAIDS Target strategy that are smaller than in the base case (worse differences in outcomes); Blue numbers indicate changes for the UNAIDS Target strategy that are greater than in the base case (better differences in outcomes). Bolded numbers indicate instances where the values differ from the base case by >20%.