Table 1.
Demographic results predicted by individual-based population model for Santa Monica Mountain lions, Southern California. Values are mean (unless otherwise noted) estimates at year 50 based on 5000 population projections.
| no immigration |
one immigrant per 13 years |
one immigrant per 4 years |
one immigrant per 2 years |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| estimate | 95% HPDa | estimate | 95% HPDa | estimate | 95% HPDa | estimate | 95% HPDa | |
| one male breeding | ||||||||
| λb | 1.01 | (0.91, 1.02) | 1.01 | (0.92, 1.02) | 1.01 | (0.95, 1.02) | 1.01 | (0.99, 1.02) |
| extinction prob. | 0.211 | (0.200, 0.222) | 0.156 | (0.145, 0.165) | 0.078 | (0.07, 0.09) | 0.024 | (0.020, 0.029) |
| extinction time | 30.79 | (12.83, 49.20) | 30.37 | (12.08, 49.17) | 32.44 | (12.58, 49.67) | 31.87 | (11.50, 48.67) |
| adults (n) | 5.20 | (0, 8) | 5.60 | (0, 8) | 6.23 | (0, 8) | 6.68 | (0, 8) |
| NE | 2.91 | (0, 3.43) | 2.94 | (0, 3.43) | 3.00 | (0, 3.43) | 3.09 | (0, 3.43) |
| two males breeding | ||||||||
| λb | 1.01 | (0.91, 1.02) | 1.01 | (0.93, 1.02) | 1.01 | (0.96, 1.02) | 1.01 | (0.99, 1.02) |
| extinction prob. | 0.220 | (0.208, 0.231) | 0.150 | (0.140, 0.160) | 0.066 | (0.058, 0.072) | 0.030 | (0.025, 0.035) |
| extinction time | 30.79 | (12.08, 47.33) | 30.37 | (12.08, 49.17) | 30.48 | (12.08, 48.42) | 33.55 | (12.67, 49.75) |
| adults (n) | 5.16 | (0, 8) | 5.66 | (0, 8) | 6.30 | (0, 8) | 6.69 | (4, 8) |
| NE | 3.95 | (0, 6) | 4.060 | (0, 6) | 4.21 | (0, 6) | 4.45 | (0, 6) |
a95% highest posterior density credible intervals.
bMedian stochastic population growth rate.