Table 1.
Model comparison
| Model | Mean difference (95% HDI) | AIC |
|---|---|---|
| Instantaneous rate (1/GUT) | 0.0242 (0.0163, 0.033) | −358.84 |
| Expected rate from prior only | 0.0313 (0.0233, 0.0392) | −341.92 |
| Expected rate from full model | 0.00091 (0.0001, 0.0019) | −397.21 |
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