Skip to main content
. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Aug 1.
Published in final edited form as: Ann Thorac Surg. 2016 May 19;102(2):370–377. doi: 10.1016/j.athoracsur.2016.02.098

Table 4.

Predictors of Mortality, Major Morbidity and Composite Mortality or Major Morbidity*

Variable Mortality Model OR (95% CI) p Major Morbidity Model OR (95% CI) p Composite Model (Mortality or Major Morbidity) OR (95% CI) p
Age (10 year increase) 1.64 (1.44, 1.87) <0.001 1.13 (1.08, 1.19) <0.001 1.14 (1.08, 1.90) <0.001
Male gender 1.54 (1.23, 1.92) <0.001 1.39 (1.28, 1.52) <0.001 1.41 (1.29, 1.53) <0.001
BMI (kg/m2) 0.006 <0.001 <0.001
 ≥18.5 to <25 1.00 1.00 1.00
 ≥6.0 to <18.5 1.44 (0.85, 2.44) 1.33 (1.07, 1.65) 1.35 (1.09, 1.66)
 ≥25.0 to <30.0 0.96 (0.75, 1.22) 0.83 (0.75, 0.91) 0.83 (0.75, 0.92)
 ≥30.0 to <35.0 0.61 (0.43, 0.85) 0.72 (0.64, 0.82) 0.72 (0.63, 0.82)
 ≥35.0 to ≤99.9 1.17 (0.82, 1.67) 0.81 (0.69, 0.96) 0.83 (0.71, 0.97)
Hypertension 0.93 (0.73, 1.17) 0.51 1.08 (0.98, 1.19) 0.12 1.06 (0.96, 1.16) 0.25
Steroids 1.72 (1.14, 2.60) 0.01 1.28 (1.05, 1.57) 0.017 1.33 (1.09, 1.62) 0.005
CHF 1.51 (1.01, 2.25) 0.046 1.17 (0.95, 1.44) 0.15 1.19 (0.97, 1.46) 0.10
CAD 1.32 (1.05, 1.67) 0.019 1.13 (1.02, 1.25) 0.022 1.14 (1.03, 1.26) 0.011
PVD 1.49 (1.13, 1.96) 0.005 1.43 (1.26, 1.62) <0.001 1.43 (1.26, 1.63) <0.001
Reoperation 1.38 (1.00, 1.94) 0.052 1.35 (1.16, 1.58) <0.001 1.32 (1.13, 1.54) <0.001
Cerebrovascular disease 1.42 (1.05, 1.90) 0.021 1.08 (0.94, 1.24) 0.29 1.11 (0.97, 1.28) 0.14
Diabetes 1.08 (0.85, 1.39) 0.53 1.01 (0.90, 1.12) 0.93 1.01 (0.91, 1.13) 0.84
% FEV1 (10% decrease) 1.07 (1.01, 1.12) 0.02 1.13 (1.10, 1.15) <0.001 1.12 (1.10, 1.15) <0.001
Induction therapy 1.51 (1.09, 2.10) 0.014 1.20 (1.02, 1.40) 0.024 1.20 (1.03, 1.39) 0.022
Renal dysfunction 1.74 (1.06, 2.86) 0.029 1.07 (0.81, 1.42) 0.64 1.11 (0.84, 1.46) 0.47
Cigarette smoking 0.14 <0.001 <0.001
 Never 1.00 1.00 1.00
 Past smoker 1.54 (1.00, 2.38) 1.20 (1.02, 1.41) 1.23 (1.05, 1.44)
 Current smoker 1.54 (0.96, 2.49) 1.64 (1.38, 1.94) 1.64 (1.38, 1.94)
Zubrod score <0.001 <0.001 <0.001
 0 1.00 1.00 1.00
 1 1.60 (1.25, 2.04) 1.14 (1.04, 1.25) 1.16 (1.06, 1.28)
 2-5 2.21 (1.45, 3.37) 1.57 (1.29, 1.91) 1.60 (1.32, 1.95)
ASA 0.007 <0.001 <0.001
 1 or 2 1.00 1.00 1.00
 3 1.67 (1.05, 2.65) 1.25 (1.08, 1.45) 1.27 (1.09, 1.47)
 4 or 5 2.26 (1.34, 3.80) 1.72 (1.42, 2.09) 1.76 (1.45, 2.13)
Approach <0.001 <0.001 <0.001
 MIS 1.00 1.00 1.00
 Thoracotomy 1.87 (1.49, 2.36) 1.49 (1.35, 1.64) 1.51 (1.37, 1.66)
Pathologic stage 0.008 0.30 0.25
 I 1.00 1.00 1.00
 II 1.15 (0.89, 1.48) 1.07 (0.96, 1.19) 1.05 (0.95, 1.17)
 III 1.46 (1.10, 1.96) 1.13 (0.99, 1.29) 1.14 (1.00, 1.30)
 IV 2.23 (1.23, 4.02) 1.01 (0.73, 1.40) 1.04 (0.75, 1.42)
Procedure <0.001 <0.001 <0.001
 Wedge 1.00 1.00 1.00
 Segmentectomy 0.98 (0.51, 1.88) 1.19 (0.93, 1.53) 1.24 (0.97, 1.57)
 Lobectomy 1.69 (1.14, 2.53) 1.96 (1.67, 2.30) 1.93 (1.65, 2.26)
 Sleeve 1.72 (0.72, 4.09) 1.93 (1.36, 2.75) 1.96 (1.39, 2.77)
 Bilobectomy 3.57 (2.09, 6.12) 2.98 (2.34, 3.80) 2.91 (2.29, 3.70)
 Pneumonectomy 4.80 (2.87, 8.02) 2.74 (2.15, 3.48) 2.83 (2.24, 3.58)
C statistic 0.78 0.68 0.68

ASA = American Society of Anesthesiologists; BMI = body mass index; CAD = coronary artery disease; CHF = congestive heart failure; CI = confidence interval; FEV1 = force expiratory volume in first second of expiration; MIS = minimally invasive surgery; OR = odds ratio; PVD = peripheral vascular disease.

*

Intercept values for the models are -10.822 for Mortality, -5.651 for Major Morbidity, and -5.657 for Composite, respectively. Covariate specific coefficients can be obtained by taking natural logarithm of the odds ratios.