Figure 10.

Likelihood contour surface for simulated time series for parameter values, N = 10000, s = 0.001 and μ = μ₁ = μ₂ = 10⁻⁴ (4Nμ = 4), as shown by grey/black line in inset of each figure: (a) sampling time Δt = 100 generations (red circles in inset) and (b) Δ = 1000 generations (red circles in inset). The likelihood is scaled to its maximum value and contours show surfaces of equal likelihood, where magenta is the largest likelihood and cyan the smallest likelihood. The grey orthogonal planes are positioned at the parameter values that maximise the likelihood and the cut-away corresponds to the N − μ and s − μ planes; the maximum likelihood parameters are (a) N^* = 1.17 × 10⁴, s^* = 7.94 × 10⁻⁴ and μ^* = 5.01 × 10⁻⁵ and (b) N^* = 1.38 × 10⁴, s^* = 7.59 × 10⁻⁴ and μ^* = 5.01 × 10⁻⁵.