Table 2.
Premature deaths and death rates by cause in 1990, 2000, 2010, and three scenarios for 2030
|
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
2030 |
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deaths | Rate* | Deaths | Rate* | Deaths | Rate* | Baseline deaths | Inertial scenario |
SDG 40×30 target |
|||||||
| Deaths† | Rate* | Change vs baseline (%)‡ | Deaths§ | Rate* | |||||||||||
| Ages 0–69 years | 314 388 | 377·2 | 279 454 | 280·9 | 303 306 | 266·0 | 452 635 | 335 467 | 243·2 | −25·9% | 271 581 | 196·9 | |||
| Communicable, perinatal, maternal, or nutritional causes | 108 864 | 130·6 | 66 176 | 66·5 | 51 637 | 45·3 | 57 892 | 27 253 | 19·8 | −52·9% | 34 735 | 25·2 | |||
| Newborn and child health (ages 0–4 years) | 81 433 | 704·0 | 47 119 | 385·6 | 33 255 | 285·4 | 29 985 | 11 386 | 108·4 | −62·0% | 17 991 | 171·2 | |||
| Asphyxia and birth trauma | 19 572 | 169·2 | 19 028 | 155·7 | 13 574 | 116·5 | 12 239 | 3285 | 31·3 | −73·2% | 7343 | 69·9 | |||
| Acute respiratory infections | 16 866 | 145·8 | 6833 | 55·9 | 3949 | 33·9 | 3561 | 0 | 0·0 | −100·0% | 2137 | 20·3 | |||
| Intestinal infections | 18 308 | 158·3 | 4029 | 33·0 | 1450 | 12·4 | 1307 | 0 | 0·0 | −100·0% | 784 | 7·5 | |||
| Perinatal and other nutritional and communicable causes | 26 687 | 230·7 | 17 229 | 141·0 | 14 282 | 122·6 | 12 878 | 8101 | 77·1 | −37·1% | 7727 | 73·5 | |||
| Maternal and other nutritional and communicable causes (ages 5–69 years) | 27 431 | 38·2 | 19 057 | 21·8 | 18 382 | 18·0 | 27 907 | 15 867 | 12·5 | −43·1% | 16 744 | 13·1 | |||
| Non-communicable diseases | 147 562 | 177·1 | 163 493 | 164·4 | 191 589 | 168·0 | 316 871 | 244 198 | 177·0 | −22·9% | 190 123 | 137·8 | |||
| Vascular, diabetes, and related disorders | 72 714 | 87·3 | 84 816 | 85·3 | 103 574 | 90·8 | 183 561 | 137 831 | 99·9 | −24·9% | 110 137 | 79·8 | |||
| Vascular | 35 304 | 42·4 | 34 456 | 34·6 | 41 145 | 36·1 | 72 349 | 52 950 | 38·4 | −26·8% | 43 409 | 31·5 | |||
| Diabetes | 16 142 | 19·4 | 25 235 | 25·4 | 38 109 | 33·4 | 70 435 | 69 188 | 50·2 | −1·8% | 42 261 | 30·6 | |||
| Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases | 16 191 | 19·4 | 19 981 | 20·1 | 18 350 | 16·1 | 31 250 | 7729 | 5·6 | −75·3% | 18 750 | 13·6 | |||
| Renal | 5077 | 6·1 | 5144 | 5·2 | 5970 | 5·2 | 9527 | 7964 | 5·8 | −16·4% | 5716 | 4·1 | |||
| Cancers | 28 640 | 34·4 | 34 138 | 34·3 | 37 669 | 33·0 | 63 471 | 42 847 | 31·1 | −32·5% | 38 083 | 27·6 | |||
| Other non-communicable diseases | 46 208 | 55·4 | 44 539 | 44·8 | 50 346 | 44·2 | 69 839 | 63 521 | 46·0 | −9·0% | 41 903 | 30·4 | |||
| Injuries | 57 962 | 69·6 | 49 785 | 50·1 | 60 080 | 52·7 | 77 872 | 64 016 | 46·4 | −17·8% | 46 723 | 33·9 | |||
| Homicides | 14 972 | 18·0 | 10 709 | 10·8 | 22 618 | 19·8 | 28 946 | 37 828 | 27·4 | 30·7% | 17 368 | 12·6 | |||
| Non-road traffic injuries | 27 138 | 32·6 | 22 114 | 22·2 | 19 265 | 16·9 | 25 208 | 9317 | 6·8 | −63·0% | 15 125 | 11·0 | |||
| Road traffic injuries | 13 918 | 16·7 | 13 565 | 13·6 | 13 977 | 12·3 | 18 271 | 10 530 | 7·6 | −42·4% | 10 963 | 7·9 | |||
| Suicides | 1934 | 2·3 | 3397 | 3·4 | 4220 | 3·7 | 5447 | 6341 | 4·6 | 16·4% | 3268 | 2·4 | |||
| Ages 70 years and over | 149 190 | 6567·2 | 199 308 | 5965·6 | 252 149 | 5496·8 | 559 556 | 476 063 | 4676·6 | −14·9% | 476 063 | 4676·6 | |||
| Total | 463 578 | 541·5 | 478 762 | 465·7 | 555 455 | 468·3 | 1 012 191 | 811 530 | 547·8 | −19·8% | 747 644 | 504·7 | |||
Own estimates using combined data from the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2015 Revision, and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), Statistics of mortality (1990–2014).
All death rates are expressed per 100 000 population.
The estimated and adjusted number of deaths for 2030 use United Nations Population Division (UNPD) population projections and implied death rates for 2030 with linear regressions based on cause-specific and age-specific mortality rates for years 2000–14.
Percentage reduction of deaths under the estimated inertial scenario based on UNPD death estimates, relative to the baseline scenario.
Death rates for 2030 population assuming a flat 40% reduction in the baseline number of deaths across age groups. The list of the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision and the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes used to group deaths by major cause is included in the appendix.