Table 1.
Policies, specifications and effect sizes used in abridged SimSmoke
| Policy | Description | Effect size (% Effect)a | Ranges for sensitivity analysisa | Long term multi-pliera | Urban adjustorb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax as a percent of retail price of cigarettes | Excise tax, taking into account expanded effect through value added tax | 5.9 % (with price elasticity -0.15c and tax as a percent of price increasing from 69 % to 75 %) | (-25 %- + 25 %) | 2 | no |
| Smoke-free air laws | |||||
| Ban in all indoor workplaces | Ban in all indoor private workplaces | 6 % | (-50 %, +50 %) | 1.25 | yes |
| Ban in indoor offices only | Ban except ventilated workplaces | 4 % | (-50 %, +50 %) | 1.25 | yes |
| Ban in health facilities, univ, govt. facilities (2 of 3) | Ban in work areas only | 2 % | (-50 %, +50 %) | 1.25 | yes |
| Restaurants: Smoke-free in all indoor areas | Ban in restaurants | 2 % | (-50 %, +50 %) | 1.25 | yes |
| Pubs and bars: smoke-free | Ban in pubs and bars | 1 % | (-50 %, +50 %) | 1.25 | yes |
| Enforcement | MPOWER: 0-10 | 25 % of effect depends on % enforcement (of 10) | |||
| Publicity | Based on level of tobacco control funding | 25 % of above effect depends on publicity | |||
| Mass Media Campaigns (policies are mutually exclusive) | |||||
| Highly publicized campaign | Tobacco control spending ≥ $0.50 USD per capita & media campaign | 6.5 % reduction | (-50 %, +50 %) | 1.2 | no |
| Moderately publicized campaign | Tobacco control spending ≥ $0.05 and < $0.50 USD per capita | 3.5 % reduction | (-50 %, +50 %) | 1.2 | no |
| Low publicized campaign | If tobacco control spending < $0.05 USD per capita | 1.0 % reduction | (-50 %, +50 %) | 1.2 | no |
| Marketing Bansd | |||||
| Ban on direct and indirect marketing | Ban on all direct and indirect advertising | 5 % | (-50 %, +50 %) | 1.3 | no |
| Ban on advertising | Ban on all direct advertising | 3 % | (-50 %, +50 %) | 1.3 | no |
| Partial ban on advertising | Ban on some direct or indirect advertising | 1 % | (-50 %, +50 %) | 1.3 | no |
| Enforcement | MPOWER: 0 – 1.0 | 50 % of effect depends on enforcement | |||
| Health Warningsd | |||||
| Complete | Bold and graphic, covers 50 % of package | 2 % | (-50 %, +50 %) | 2 | no |
| Strong | Warning 30–50 % of package | 1 % | (-50 %, +50 %) | 2 | no |
| Weak | Warning <30 % of package | 0.50 % | (-50 %, +50 %) | 2 | no |
| Cessation Treatment Policiese | |||||
| Nicotine Replacement Therapy | If sold by pharmacy or general store and if Rx required | Prev. reduced 0.667 % if available at w/out Rx, 0.334 % if Rx | (-75 %, +75 %) | 2.5 | yes |
| Bupropion and Varenicline | Sold by pharmacy with prescription | Prev. reduced 0.334 %, | (-75 %, +75 %) | 2.5 | yes |
| Provision of treatments | Type facilities: primary care, hospitals, health professionals, community and other | If provided in in most, prevalence reduced 2.25 %, if provided in some, then 1.125 % | (-75 %, +75 %) | 2.5 | yes |
| Quit line type | Operating active quit line | Prev. reduced 0.5 % | (-75 %, +75 %) | 2.5 | yes |
| Overall effect | With all of the above policies and publicity based on tobacco control funding | Prev. reduced 4.75 %, 25 % of effect depends on publicity | (-75 %, +75 %) | 2.5 | yes |
Notes: HIC high-income country, LIC low-income country, MIC middle-income country, NA not applicable, NRT nicotine replacement therapy
aShort-term effect size is defined as the relative percentage change in smoking prevalence in first five years of policy implementation. The long-term effect is short-term-effect multiplied by the long-term multiplier, adjusted by awareness and urban status adjustors. We also provide ranges for the effect sizes, which are measured as percentage variation in the effect sizes compared to the level in the preceding column
bThe urban adjustor reduces the effect to reflect the percentage of the rural population not affected by the policies indicated
cSee Levy et al [32] for a description of the calculations
dCategories are mutually exclusive categories
eEffects are additive over policies