Fig. 5.

Comparison of impact predictions between immune-interactions. Boxplots summarising and comparing impact predictions of vaccination + catch-up between the neutral model (grey) and models assuming 4 types of serotype immune-interactions: full immunity after 2 infections (cyan), antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE, green), temporary cross-immunity (CI, orange) and ADE + CI (magenta). Impact predictions are based on the relative reductions in total incidence (A) and increases in average ages of primary (B) and secondary (C) infections for three relevant post-vaccination time periods. The catch-up campaign targets a core group of individuals between 10 and 50 years of age with coverage 50%; routine vaccination coverage was 75% of individuals at 6 years of age. Results are based on 50 independent simulations. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of the article.)