Table 1.

Model parameters.

Parameter	Value	Distribution	Source
Reduction in systolic blood pressure at 12 months (mmHg)
Intensive BP lowering	16.1		PAST-BP trial9
Standard target	12.8
12 Months’ difference between groups (95% CI)	–2.9 (–5.7, −0.2)
Annual event probabilities
Stroke
60–69 years old	0.0348		PROGRESS & NICE, Lipid Modification Guidelines12,18
70–79 years old	0.0589
80–89 years old	0.0713
MI and UA
60–69 years old	0.0139		PROGRESS & NICE, Lipid Modification Guidelines12,18
70–79 years old	0.0232
80–89 years old	0.0232
Age-related relative risks at 12 months for intensive and standard BP lowering a
MI and UA – intensive BP lowering
60–69 years old	0.62 [0.59, 0.65]		PAST-BP trial & Law et al.9,13
70–79 years old	0.68 [0.63, 0.70]
80–89 years old	0.74 [0.69, 0.77]
Stroke – intensive BP lowering
60–69 years old	0.52 [0.47, 0.56]		PAST-BP trial & Law et al.9,13
70–79 years old	0.58 [0.54, 0.63]
80–89 years old	0.74 [0.68, 0.78]
MI and UA – standard target
60–69 years old	0.68 [0.65, 0.70]		PAST-BP trial & Law et al.9,13
70–79 years old	0.72 [0.69, 0.75]
80–89 years old	0.78 [0.74, 0.81]
Stroke – standard target
60–69 years old	0.59 [0.55, 0.63]		PAST-BP trial & Law et al.9,13
70–79 years old	0.65 [0.61, 0.68]
80–89 years old	0.78 [0.73, 0.82]
Utilities for the initial health state
Intensive BP lowering and standard target
60–69 years old	0.7241	Beta	PAST-BP trial9
70–79 years old	0.6631	Beta
80–89 years old	0.6362	Beta
Utilities for acute disease b
UA	0.77	Beta	NICE, Lipid Modification Guidelines18
MI	0.76	Beta
Stroke	0.63	Beta
Dead	0.00		By definition
Utilities for long-term (chronic) disease b
UA	0.88	Beta	NICE, Lipid Modification Guidelines18
MI	0.88	Beta
Stroke	0.63	Beta
Probability of death from an event
Fatal stroke	0.23	Beta	Bamford et al.29
Fatal MI
60–69 years old	0.23		ONS, Deaths Registry 2011 & Kerr et al.11,30
70–79 years old	0.39
80–89 years old	0.52
Annual cost of consultation per patient (UK£) – intensive BP lowering
GP consultations	86		PAST-BP trial & Curtis9,16
PN consultations	35
Annual cost of consultation per patient (UK£) – standard target
GP consultations	50		PAST-BP trial & Curtis9,16
PN consultations	29
Average cost of hypertensive drugs per patient £per year c
Intensive BP lowering	23		BNF 20122,8
Standard target	20
Cost for the initial state £per year
Intensive BP lowering	144	Gamma	PAST-BP trial, Curtis, BNF 20129,16,28
Standard target	100	Gamma
Costs of acute disease £one-off cost
Stroke	11020	Gamma	Youman et al.19
MI	5487	Gamma	Palmer et al.20
UA	3292	Gamma	Assumed 60% of MI
Costs for long-term (chronic) disease £per year
Stroke	2721	Gamma	Youman et al.19
MI	572	Gamma	NICE, Lipid Modification Guidelines18
UA	572	Gamma	NICE, Lipid Modification Guidelines18

MI: myocardial infarction; UA: unstable angina; BP: blood pressure; GP: general practitioner; PN: practice nurse.

^aRelative risk comparing blood pressure after treatment with baseline blood pressure.

^bThese figures are multiplied by initial health state utility to estimate new health state utility.

^cAnnual cost of drugs was calculated on the basis of commonest drug and dose per drug group per arm at 6 and 12 months.