Table 7.

Random-effects probit regressions on correct answers to base-rate-neglect questions.

Correct answer	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
Male	0.032	0.016	0.015	0.014
	(0.134)	(0.129)	(0.130)	(0.153)
Conflict	−1.377***	−1.391***	−1.639***	−1.662**
	(0.133)	(0.174)	(0.518)	(0.648)
Classic CRT		−0.037	−0.116***	−0.130*
		(0.043)	(0.041)	(0.072)
CRT2		0.150***	0.174***	0.209***
		(0.038)	(0.054)	(0.070)
Faith in intuition		0.041	0.050	0.032
		(0.046)	(0.059)	(0.058)
Need for cognition		0.008	−0.005	−0.017
		(0.026)	(0.079)	(0.061)
Numeracy		0.032	0.033	0.030
		(0.036)	(0.037)	(0.034)
Conflict × classic CRT			0.126**	0.132*
			(0.052)	(0.071)
Conflict × CRT2			−0.039	−0.045
			(0.087)	(0.091)
Conflict × FI			−0.014	−0.017
			(0.030)	(0.030)
Conflict × NFC			0.021	0.025
			(0.087)	(0.087)
Openness to experience				0.071**
				(0.036)
Conscientiousness				−0.026
				(0.018)
Extraversion				−0.034**
				(0.014)
Agreeableness				0.017
				(0.028)
Neuroticism				0.002
				(0.017)
Actively open-minded thinking				0.052
				(0.066)
Observations	942	942	942	942

The dummy Conflict takes the value 1 for the respective versions of the questions; Alignment is the reference category. Standard errors (in parentheses) are (conservatively) clustered at the level of counterbalance condition (question order).

^*p < 0.1,

^**p < 0.05,

^***p < 0.01.