Table 1.

Model assumptions for the prevalence of high-risk HPV, HPV-16/18, and health state transition probabilities by age group

	Age group (years)									Reference(s)
	25–29	30–34	35–39	40–44	45–49	50–54	55–59	60–64	65–70
Prevalence
HPV HR, % infected	21.1	13.4	9.9	7.6	6.6	6.6	5.9	5.9	4.4	ATHENA [12]
HPV-16/18, % of HPV HR	33.0	28.6	27.9	20.3	23.8	19.9	19.3	18.1	18.9	ATHENA [12]
HPV HR, % per cytology
Normal	16.6	10.6	7.5	6.1	5.4	5.6	5.0	5.3	4.0	ATHENA [12]
ASC-US	49.4	31.2	28.5	19.8	9.8	18.8	20.3	20.0	12.5	ATHENA [12]
LSIL/HSIL	78.7	72.6	69.0	61.5	60.6	56.1	65.5	50.0	66.7	ATHENA [12]
Annual transition probabilities used in the model
HPV HR (−) to HPV HR (+)	0.1500	0.0576	0.0333	0.0333	0.0333	0.0222	0.0222	0.0222	0.0222	[17, 20, 23]
HPV HR (+) to HPV HR (−)	0.7000	0.4130	0.4130	0.4130	0.4130	0.4130	0.4130	0.4130	0.4130	[17, 20–22]
HPV HR (+) no CIN to CIN1	0.1100	0.1100	0.1100	0.1100	0.1100	0.1100	0.1100	0.1100	0.1100	[18, 20]
HPV HR (+) no CIN to CIN 2 or CIN 3	0.0583	0.0583	0.0583	0.0583	0.0583	0.0583	0.0583	0.0583	0.0583	[18, 21]
CIN 1 to CIN 2 or CIN 3	0.0198	0.0198	0.1444	0.1444	0.2688	0.2688	0.2688	0.2688	0.2688	[19, 21]
CIN 2 or CIN 3 to Cervical Cancer	0.0060	0.0060	0.0060	0.0060	0.0060	0.0060	0.0060	0.0060	0.0060	[18, 20, 21]
CIN1 to HPV HR (+) or HPV HR (−)	0.2248	0.2248	0.1124	0.1124	0.1124	0.1124	0.1124	0.1124	0.1124	[17]
CIN 2 or CIN 3 to CIN1	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	[17, 20]
CIN 2 or CIN 3 to HPV HR (−)	0.2036	0.2036	0.2036	0.2036	0.1901	0.1901	0.1901	0.1901	0.1901	[17]

ASC-US atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance, ATHENA Addressing THE Need for Advanced HPV Diagnostics, CIN cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, HPV human papillomavirus, HR high risk, HSIL high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, LSIL low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion