Table 3.

Concurrent Recalibrated Model Fit Statistics from Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression with Square Root Transformationa

	CMS V21		DxCG Medicare		DxCG Medicaid
	Concurrent	Concurrent with VA Drug Class Indicators	Prospective without Rx	Concurrent without Rx	Prospective with Rx
R 2
General	0.5793	0.6924	0.5819	0.6274	0.6351
Older	0.5728	0.6772	0.5677	0.6233	0.6397
MH‐SUD	0.5820	0.6810	0.5896	0.6268	0.6509
High cost	0.3559	0.4281	0.3544	0.4244	0.4241
Multimorbid	0.5350	0.6331	0.5326	0.5957	0.5943
Low risk	0.2922	0.4573	0.3113	0.3508	0.3778
HL F‐stat
General	9,206	7,499	20,251	20,687	11,726
Older	3,803	2,182	6,683	7,074	3,418
MH‐SUD	2,883	2,941	6,699	6,068	3,288
High cost	197	298	214	167	159
Multimorbid	1,671	1,972	4,282	5,297	1,992
Low risk	53	91	112	127	113
RMSE
General	16,560	15,531	17,053	16,590	15,540
Older	15,972	14,894	16,415	16,108	14,652
MH‐SUD	22,277	20,922	22,713	21,920	20,667
High cost	57,306	54,756	57,422	54,254	54,473
Multimorbid	27,709	26,105	28,234	26,761	26,069
Low risk	4,393	4,023	4,418	4,269	4,164
MAE
General	5,977	5,084	5,965	5,590	5,541
Older	5,535	4,765	5,582	5,138	5,040
MH‐SUD	9,224	8,026	9,142	8,668	8,400
High cost	33,186	31,216	33,167	31,127	31,463
Multimorbid	12,414	10,920	12,466	11,492	11,533
Low risk	1,892	1,643	1,862	1,815	1,772

R ² represents R‐squared; HL F‐stat is the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness‐of‐fit F statistic; RMSE is root mean squared error; MAE is mean absolute error.

^aAll analyses are based on risk scores computed with 2010 clinical data in relation to 2010 costs.