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. 2016 Sep 29;16:521. doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1817-3

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© The Author(s). 2016

Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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Fig. 1 — Calibration of basic SEIR model. a Log-score (color) vs. incubation and infectious period. b Log-score vs. R₀ and campaign coverage. c Data (blue) and score-weighted distribution of simulations (68, 95, 99 % quantiles in red) for age distribution of paralysis cases. d Data (blue) and score-weighted distribution of simulations (68, 95, 99 % quantiles in red) for time series of case counts