Table 2.

Risk model variable outcomes

Model and Variable	Hazard Ratio (95% CI)	P Value
Death–censored graft loss
1, n=981
UACRa,b	1.65 (1.44 to 2.31)	<0.001
eGFRc	0.66 (0.58 to 0.76)	<0.001
eGFR2c	1.07 (1.03 to 1.11)
Black race	2.15 (0.96 to 0.48)	0.06
Recipient, men	1.25 (0.86 to 1.82)	0.25
Rejectiond	1.34 (0.86 to 2.04)	0.19
Rejection × UACR	1.68 (0.89 to 3.13)	0.11
Recipient agec	0.78 (0.69 to 0.90)	<0.001
g Scoree	2.53 (1.87 to 3.42)	<0.001
ci Scoree	1.66 (1.35 to 2.06)	<0.001
2, n=622
UACRa,b	2.15 (1.24 to 3.71)	<0.01
eGFRc	0.57 (0.46 to 0.70)	<0.001
eGFR2c	1.06 (0.99 to 1.14)
Black race	2.00 (0.46 to 8.73)	0.04
Recipient, men	1.14 (0.63 to 2.05)	0.66
Rejectiond	2.16 (1.06 to 4.43)	0.04
Rejection × UACR	1.28 (0.46 to 3.55)	0.64
Recipient agec	0.69 (0.34 to 3.97)	<0.001
C2 DSA cum
≤800	1.17 (0.34 to 3.97)	0.001
>800	4.34 (1.98 to 9.52)
3, n=556
UACRa,b	1.65 (0.89 to 3.09)	0.11
eGFRc	0.64 (0.48 to 0.85)	<0.01
eGFR2c	0.94 (0.82 to 1.09)
Black race	1.18 (0.25 to 5.52)	0.84
Recipient, men	1.07 (0.56 to 2.07)	0.83
Rejectiond	1.03 (0.43. 2.42)	0.95
Rejection × UACR	2.73 (0.86 to 8.69)	0.09
Recipient agec	0.64 (0.51 to 0.80)	<0.001
g Scoree	2.74 (1.77 to 4.25)	<0.001
ci Scoree	1.90 (1.27 to 2.85)	0.002
C2 DSA cum
≤800	0.72 (0.16 to 3.35)	0.003
>800	4.57 (1.89 to 11.1)
Overall graft loss
1, n=981
UACRa	1.41 (1.12 to 1.77)	0.004
Albuminc	0.66 (0.55 to 0.79)	<0.001
eGFR	0.78 (0.71 to 0.85)	<0.001
eGFR2	1.07 (1.04 to 1.10)
Rejection	1.63 (1.23 to 2.16)	0.001
Black race	1.53 (0.83 to 2.81)	0.17
Recipient, men	1.19 (0.93 to 1.53)	0.18
Recipient agec	1.12 (1.00 (1.25)	<0.001
Recipient age2c	1.09 (1.03 to 1.16)
g Scoree	1.83 (1.44 to 2.31)	<0.001

Death–censored graft loss shows the final multivariate models for death–censored graft failure after analysis of the univariate factors (seen in Supplemental Table 2). These factors are analyzed in addition to the existing Birmingham model risk factors; thus, although not significant with the additional data, they still performed well in outcome prediction. There are three models for each of the cohorts with available data. Overall graft loss shows the final multivariate model for overall graft failure, which only was performed in the histology group, because it was the only risk factor for failure in univariate analysis. The histologic score hazard ratio is incremental per unit of Banff score. C2 DSA cum, cumulative mean fluorescence intensity of class 2 donor–specific alloantibody.

^aVariable was analyzed on log scale (base 10).

^bEffect of UACR varies depending on rejection. Results are reported when there was no rejection.

^cHazard ratios are reported for a 10-U increase in variable.

^dEffects of rejection vary depending on UACR. Reported results are for UACR=2.9.

^eHazard ratio is per unit of histologic Banff score.