Fig. 3.

Response curves reflect the dependence of the predicted suitability on each variable and on dependencies caused by correlations between each selected variable and other variables. Shading indicates the standard deviation of the 10 replicate model runs. Four variables were most important in describing the potential distribution of I. scapularis in Minnesota. The y-axis shows the logistic probability of presence; higher logistic probabilities indicate higher suitability. The variables include: (A) United States Geological Service, National Gap Analysis Program (GAP) National Vegetation Classification—formation or land use classification: BSFS = boreal flooded and swamp forest, CTF = cool temperate forest, DU = developed and urban, HAV = herbaceous agricultural vegetation, ISNV = introduced and seminatural vegetation, LMBF = lowland and montane boreal forest, OW = open water, RDM = recently developed or modified, TBFWMM = temperate and boreal freshwater wet meadow and marsh, TFSF = temperate flooded and swamp forest, TGMS = temperate grassland, meadow and shrubland, (B) summer precipitation, (C) annual temperature range, and (D) the maximum temperature during the warmest month.