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. 2016 Jun 16;3(3):ofw125. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofw125

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© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reproduction and distribution of the work, in any medium, provided the original work is not altered or transformed in any way, and that the work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.

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Figure 3. — Percentage change in prevalent drug-resistant cases after 10 years of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) scale-up in base-case analyses. Figures show results of (A) primary analysis, in which PrEP efficacy and drug levels persisted for 2 months after an injection, and (B) secondary analyses, in which PrEP efficacy disappeared after 2 months but drug levels persisted for 3 (optimistic) or 6 (conservative) months. Optimistic (conservative) scenario assumptions were as follows: 90% (70%) PrEP efficacy vs wild-type human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), 0%–50% relative efficacy vs rilpivirine-resistant HIV, 80% (70%) PrEP reliability, 40% (70%) cross-resistance between antiretroviral treatment and PrEP, and successful (all) PrEP injections select drug-resistant HIV after breakthrough infection.