Skip to main content
. 2016 Oct 5;2(10):e1600873. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1600873

Fig. 1. Megadrought risk estimates for the American Southwest shown with model-projected changes in mean hydroclimate.

Fig. 1

(A to C) Megadrought risk estimates for the American Southwest (shading) shown with model-projected changes in mean hydroclimate under the RCP 8.5 (high emissions) scenario for (A) annual precipitation and JJA soil moisture (PDSI, 30-cm soil moisture, and 2-m soil moisture) in the CESM LENS, (B) annual precipitation from all CMIP5 models, and (C) JJA soil moisture indicators derived from a 17-model subset of CMIP5 for which all variables needed to compute these quantities were available (7). In all panels, the interquartile range of the ensemble is shown (the full range is shown in the Supplementary Materials). Model-based variables are normalized to unit variance over a historical reference period (1951–2000) and compared with midcentury changes (2051–2080). The shading shows the 2D PDF of megadrought risk for combinations of changes in the mean (Δμ) and variability (δσ) of a normalized drought indicator time series [z′(t)].