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. 2016 Oct 5;2(10):e1600873. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1600873

Fig. 3. Megadrought risk estimates for fixed mean precipitation changes, shown as a function of mean annual temperature and compared with CMIP5 projections of mean warming from 2051 to 2100 compared to 1951 to 2000.

Fig. 3

Contours show risks for constant levels of mean precipitation change (ΔP), derived from the 2D PDF in Fig. 2. The dashed lines denote the median warming (again comparing 2051–2100 to 1951–2000) from RCP 2.6 (1.9°C) and RCP 8.5 (4.5°C) and their corresponding risks assuming no change in precipitation (ΔP = 0%).