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. 2016 Oct 10;6:34598. doi: 10.1038/srep34598

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Copyright © 2016, The Author(s)

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(a) When a new infection appears, the probability the infection would be a strain s is . We define Q_s to be the difference between the prediction and actual event. (b) S_s, the expectation value of Q_s, should be 0 if s is no more transmissible than the disease as a whole. If S_s < 0, then we would say that s is more transmissible than the typical strain, while the opposite is true if S_s > 0.

Inline graphic — (a) When a new infection appears, the probability the infection would be a strain s is . We define Q_s to be the difference between the prediction and actual event. (b) S_s, the expectation value of Q_s, should be 0 if s is no more transmissible than the disease as a whole. If S_s < 0, then we would say that s is more transmissible than the typical strain, while the opposite is true if S_s > 0.