Table 1. Mean total number of cases averted after 15 y across 1,500 simulations, with noisy vaccination trajectories and mean total number of TCs and cases averted per TC for vaccination scenarios with the stated trigger, 20% coverage, and a 3-mo lag between trigger and vaccination.

	Cases Averted (95% CI)	Average Number of TCs (95% CI)	Cases Averted per TC (95% CI)
Yemen-like (73% routine coverage, 38 births per 1,000)
10 cases	27,705 (24,780–30,631)	2.18 (2.10–2.25)	12,736 (11,322–14,150)
25 cases	28,613 (25,722–31,505)	2.09 (2.02–2.16)	13,691 (12,223–15,158)
10% s in 2–5 y olds	83,722 (81,247–86,198)	9.81 (9.77–9.85)	8,537 (8,282–8,792)
15% s in 2–5 y olds	68,084 (65,336–70,832)	7.18 (7.13–7.24)	9,480 (9,090–9,869)
15% s in 2 y olds	89,173 (86,768–91,577)	11.01 (10.97–11.06)	8,098 (7,877–8,319)
Niger-like (71% routine coverage, 48 births per 1,000)
10 cases	18,269 (16,363–20,175)	2.12 (2.06–2.19)	8,612 (7,675–9,549)
25 cases	18,422 (16,479–20,364)	1.95 (1.88–2.01)	9,470 (8,423–10,516)
10% s in 2–5 y olds	52,718 (51,022–54,414)	10.15 (10.11–10.20)	5,193 (5,024–5,362)
15% s in 2–5 y olds	41,124 (39,280–42,968)	7.53 (7.47–7.58)	5,463 (5,214–5,711)
15% s in 2 y olds	56,207 (54,570–57,844)	11.45 (11.41–11.48)	4,910 (4,766–5,054)
Nepal-like (86% routine coverage, 24 births per 1,000)
10 cases	712 (571–852)	1.39 (1.32–1.46)	513 (408–617)
25 cases	582 (436–728)	0.91 (0.85–0.96)	640 (475–806)
10% s in 2–5 y olds	1,093 (960–1226)	5.03 (4.98–5.09)	217 (191–244)
15% s in 2–5 y olds	416 (258–574)	1.20 (1.16–1.25)	346 (214, 478)
15% s in 2 y olds	701 (554–848)	2.18 (2.12–2.24)	322 (254, 389)
Zambia-like (91% routine coverage, 46 births per 1,000)
10 cases	599 (464–735)	1.07 (1.01–1.13)	561 (430–692)
25 cases	459 (320–598)	0.74 (0.69–0.79)	621 (429–813)
10% s in 2–5 y olds	744 (612–876)	3.72 (3.67–3.77)	200 (164–236)
15% s in 2–5 y olds	108 (−70 to 285)	0.38 (0.35–0.41)	284 (−185 to 752)
15% s in 2 y olds	326 (174–479)	0.88 (0.83–0.92)	373 (197–549)

Abbreviations: s, seropositive