Table 3.

Performance of pneumonia-specific risk prediction models for 30-day readmission

Study	Model*	Discrimination, C Statistic†	Pseudo R2	Calibration: Observed Readmission Rate‡
				Lowest Predicted Risk Group (%)	Highest Predicted Risk Group (%)
Capelastegui et al., 2009 (11)	Pneumonia related	0.65 (derivation cohort)	Not reported	1.2 (tertile)§	6.3 (tertile)§
	Pneumonia unrelated	0.77 (derivation cohort)	Not reported	0.6 (sextile)§	16.2 (sextile)§
Hebert et al., 2014 (17)	EMR model	Cohort 1: 0.73	0.09§	6.0	36.0
		Cohort 2: 0.66	0.02§
Lindenauer et al., 2011 (12)	CMS Pneumonia Administrative Model	Cohort 1: 0.63	0.05	9	31
		Cohort 2: 0.63	0.05	8	31
		Cohort 3: 0.63	0.05	8	30
	CMS Pneumonia Medical Record Model	0.59 (derivation cohort)	0.02	10	26
Mather et al., 2014 (13)	All cause	0.67	0.13	7.5	43.0
	Pneumonia related	0.56§	0.16	3.3	36.6
	Pneumonia unrelated	0.39§	0.11	9.1	34.0
	Modified CMS Pneumonia Medical Record Model	0.48§	0.08	4.2	35.1
Nagasako et al., 2014 (14)	SES-enriched CMS Pneumonia Administrative Model	0.72§	0.14§	3.6§	38.7§
	CMS Pneumonia Administrative Model	0.72§	0.14§	3.6§	38.6§
O’Brien et al., 2015 (15)	CMS Pneumonia Administrative Model	Cohort 1: 0.63	Not reported	10.0	31.8
		Cohort 2: 0.63	Not reported	12.0	36.7
Tang et al., 2014 (16)	VA predictor model	0.61	0.03§	7.5 (quintile)§	21.1 (quintile)§

Definition of abbreviations: EMR = electronic medical record; CMS = Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; SES = socioeconomic; VA = Veterans Affairs.

^*All models predicted all-cause 30-day readmission, unless otherwise specified.

^†Discrimination reported is for predicting 30-day readmission in the validation cohort, unless otherwise specified.

^‡Range of mean observed risk for 30-day readmission is reported by lowest-risk to highest-risk decile, unless otherwise specified.

^§Data obtained from contacting study author.