Table 1. Average yearly results in the short-, mid- and long-term (n = 395 simulations).
| Yearly results | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2020 | 2024 | 2034 | |||||||||
| N | 95%CI | % | N | 95%CI | % | N | 95%CI | % | N | 95%CI | % | |
| Invited population | 44,573 | [44,518;44,600] | 48,240 | [48,150;48,285] | 51,531 | [51,420;51,586] | 58,555 | [58,438;58,613] | ||||
| Participants | 19,513 | [19,257;19,642] | 43.8% | 24,002 | [23,568;24,223] | 49.8% | 26,308 | [25,822;26,555] | 51.1% | 30,407 | [29,837;30,697] | 51.9% |
| Successive | 0 | 0.0% | 16,569 | [16,197;16,758] | 69.0% | 19,899 | [19,437;20,134] | 75.6% | 24,604 | [24,058;24,882] | 80.9% | |
| Positive results of FIT | 1,299 | [1,261.1;1,318.8] | 6.7% | 1,250 | [1,206.9;1,272.1] | 5.2% | 1,327 | [1,283.5;1,349.8] | 5.0% | 1,496 | [1,449.3;1,519.5] | 4.9% |
| Number of colonoscopies after a positive FITa | 1,218 | [1,180.4;1,237.8] | 82.2% | 1,193 | [1,150.0;1,215] | 83.7% | 1,257 | [1,212.2;1,279.7] | 83.0% | 1,426 | [1,379.7;1,449.5] | 83.6% |
| Negative | 346 | [329.1;354.7] | 32.0% | 405 | [384.8;414.6] | 38.2% | 441 | [420.5;451.6] | 39.3% | 507 | [484.3;519.1] | 40.0% |
| Positive no cancer | 667 | [642.2;680.0] | 61.7% | 609 | [582.9;622.2] | 57.5% | 638 | [610.7;651.7] | 56.9% | 714 | [686.8;727.5] | 56.2% |
| Low-risk adenomas | 189 | [177.4;195.0] | 17.5% | 204 | [190.6;210.5] | 19.2% | 215 | [201.8;222.5] | 19.2% | 252 | [236.7;259.2] | 19.8% |
| Intermediate-risk adenomas | 297 | [281.5;305.1] | 27.5% | 284 | [267.9;292.3] | 26.8% | 296 | [279.6;304.9] | 26.4% | 328 | [310.6;336.5] | 25.8% |
| High-risk adenomas | 181 | [168.2;187.6] | 16.7% | 121 | [111.0;126.3] | 11.4% | 126 | [115.6;131.3] | 11.2% | 134 | [125.0;139.2] | 10.6% |
| Positive for cancer | 68 | [61.0;71.8] | 6.3% | 46 | [40.5;49.0] | 4.4% | 43 | [37.3;45.9] | 3.8% | 48 | [42.3;51.0] | 3.8% |
| Results of surveillance colonoscopyb | 546 | [524.5;557.3] | 873 | [842.0;888.1] | 1,011 | [974.1;1,029.3] | ||||||
| Negative | 391 | [373.0;399.7] | 71.5% | 621 | [595.8;633.6] | 71.2% | 719 | [690.3;733.2] | 71.1% | |||
| Positive no cancer | 154 | [142.7;160.1] | 28.2% | 249 | [234.9;255.9] | 28.5% | 288 | [272.0;296.2] | 28.5% | |||
| Low-risk adenomas | 141 | [129.6;146.2] | 25.7% | 226 | [212.6;232.5] | 25.9% | 260 | [244.7;267.8] | 25.7% | |||
| High- and Intermediate-risk adenomas | 14 | [10.3;15.3] | 2.5% | 23 | [19.1;25.1] | 2.6% | 28 | [23.4;30.4] | 2.8% | |||
| Positive for cancer | 1 | [0.4;1.9] | 0.3% | 3 | [1.4;3.6] | 0.3% | 4 | [2.1;4.8] | 0.4% | |||
aNumber includes repeated colonoscopies, the % was calculated for the first colonoscopy.
bAverage adherence to surveillance colonoscopies: 52.1%.
FIT: Fecal-occult immunochemical test. CI: Confidence Interval