Table 2.
Mortality rates by potential baseline risk factorsa
| n | deaths | Mortality rate per 100 person-years (95 % CI) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total population | 1815 | 365 | 83.1 (75.0 to 92.1) | |
| Study period | Pre-ART | 1784e | 151 | 120.8 (103.0 to 141.7) |
| Post-ART | 1441 | 195 | 66.1 (57.4 to 76.1) | |
| Days Pre-ART | 0–13 | 1784 | 46 | 73.6 (55.1 to 98.3) |
| 14–20 | 1401 | 25 | 119.0 (80.4 to 176.2) | |
| 21–27 | 867 | 20 | 151.4 (97.6 to 234.6) | |
| 28–70 | 554 | 60 | 211.9 (164.5 to 272. 9) | |
| Days Post-ART | 0–13 | 1441 | 44 | 81.3 (60.5 to 109.2) |
| 14–27 | 1380 | 39 | 75.5 (55.1 to 103.3) | |
| 28–41 | 1326 | 35 | 70.4 (50.5 to 98.0) | |
| 42–55 | 1277 | 32 | 66.9 (47.3 to 94.6) | |
| 56–69 | 1266 | 24 | 52.2 (35.0 to 77.9) | |
| ≥70 | 1184 | 21 | 46.0 (30.0 to 70.5) | |
| Site | Lusaka | 1111 | 170 | 64.4 (55.4 to 74.9) |
| Mwanza | 704 | 195 | 122.3 (106.3 to 140.8) | |
| Sex | Women | 900 | 156 | 72.6 (62.0 to 84.9) |
| Men | 915 | 209 | 100.3 (87.6 to 114.9) | |
| Age group (years) | 18–29 | 463 | 85 | 80.1 (64.7 to 99.1) |
| 30–39 | 788 | 159 | 87.5 (74.9 to 102.2) | |
| 40–49 | 411 | 81 | 82.2 (66.1 to 102.1) | |
| > = 50 | 153 | 40 | 108.3 (79.4 to 147.6) | |
| Socioeconomic quintiles | Highest | 360 | 73 | 85.4 (67.9 to 107.5) |
| High | 355 | 77 | 93.0 (74.3 to 116.2) | |
| Middle | 362 | 72 | 84.7 (67.2 to 106.7) | |
| Low | 374 | 81 | 93.9 (75.5 to 116.8) | |
| Lowest | 364 | 62 | 74.0 (57.7 to 94.9) | |
| CD4 group (cells/μl) | > = 200 | 494 | 59 | 48.1 (37.3 to 62.1) |
| 100–199 | 531 | 82 | 64.5 (51.9 to 80.1) | |
| 50–99 | 347 | 88 | 112.0 (90.9 to 138.0) | |
| <50 | 443 | 136 | 143.3 (121.1 to 169.5) | |
| BMI group (kg/m2) | 17.0–18.49 | 741 | 106 | 57.7 (47.7 to 69.8) |
| 16.0–16.9 | 468 | 93 | 85.5 (69.8 to 104.8) | |
| <16.0 | 606 | 166 | 126.9 (109.0 to 147.7) | |
| Haemoglobin (g/L) b | > = 120/130 | 177 | 15 | 33.2 (20.0 to 55.0) |
| 110–119/129 | 285 | 39 | 53.7 (39.2 to 73.4) | |
| 80–190 | 810 | 158 | 83.5 (71.4 to 97.6) | |
| <80 | 398 | 127 | 153.9 (129.3 to 183.1) | |
| Oedema | No | 1749 | 335 | 81.5 (73.2 to 90.7) |
| Yes | 66 | 30 | 245.5 (171.7 to 351.1) | |
| On Tuberculosis Treatment | No | 1511 | 320 | 93.0 (83.3 to 103.7) |
| Yes | 304 | 38 | 50.2 (36.5 to 69.0) | |
| On cotrimoxazole | No | 319 | 59 | 77.7 (60.2 to 100.3) |
| Yes | 1486 | 302 | 87.5 (78.2 to 98.0) | |
| Serum phosphatec | Grades 3–4 low, <0.65 mmol/L | 54 | 16 | 134.0 (82.1 to 218.8) |
| Grades 1–2 low, 0.65–0.87 mmol/L | 142 | 28 | 83.5 (57.7 to 120.9) | |
| Normal, 0.87–1.45 mmol/L | 1241 | 232 | 79.6 (70.0 to 90.5) | |
| Above normal, >1.45 mmol/L | 327 | 74 | 98.3 (78.3 to 123.5) | |
| CRP group (mg/l) | <10 | 358 | 27 | 28.7 (19.7 to 41.8) |
| 10–49 | 450 | 57 | 50.7 (39.1 to 65.8) | |
| 50–159 | 491 | 118 | 109.2 (91.1 to 130.7) | |
| ≥160 | 463 | 151 | 155.8 (132.8 to 182.7) | |
| Fat-free mass indexc Tertiles (kg/m2) | ≥14.5 | 486 | 65 | 55.6 (43.6 to 70.9) |
| 13.7 to 14.49 | 503 | 81 | 65.2 (52.4 to 81.0) | |
| <13.7 | 471 | 92 | 81.4 (66.4 to 99.9) | |
| Fat mass indexc Tertiles (kg/m2) | ≥3.0 | 466 | 62 | 52.2 (40.7 to 67.0) |
| 2.2 to 2.99 | 520 | 80 | 62.3 (50.0 to 77.5) | |
| <2.2 | 474 | 96 | 89.8 (73.5 to 109.7) | |
| Grip strengthc Tertiles (kg) | >22.2 | 592 | 79 | 53.6 (43.0 to 66.8) |
| 16.2 to 22.2 | 588 | 119 | 85.9 (71.8 to 102.8) | |
| <16.2 | 572 | 155 | 125.7 (107.4 to 147.1) | |
| MUACc Tertiles (cm) | >22.3 | 603 | 63 | 41.4 (32.3 to 52.9) |
| 20.5–22.3 | 633 | 123 | 82.8 (69.4 to 98.8) | |
| <20.5 | 566 | 179 | 150.3 (129.8 to 174.0) | |
| Appetitec, d Tertiles | > − 0.5 | 229 | 48 | 86.5 (65.2 to 114.8) |
| −1.48 to −0.55 | 227 | 59 | 112.8 (87.4 to 145.6) | |
| <−1.5 | 228 | 76 | 158.1 (126.3 to 197.9) | |
aAbbreviations: BMI body mass index, MUAC mid-upper arm circumference, CRP C-reactive protein
bNormal haemoglobin cut-offs used were 120 g/L for women and 130 g/L for men
cValues were divided into tertiles for factors without established cut-offs
dAppetite score from polychoric correlation
e31 patients excluded due to missing information on ART