Table 3.
Poisson regression models for baseline factors associated with overall mortality
| Factor | Level | Unadjusted HR (95 % CI) b | p-value | Adjusted HR (95 % CI) c n = 1685c | Adjusted p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Site | Zambia | 1 | <0.001 | 1 | <0.001 |
| Tanzania | 1.90 (1.55 to 2.33) | 1.60 (1.27 to 2.03) | |||
| Sex | Female | 1 | 0.002 | 1 | <0.001 |
| Male | 1.38 (1.12 to 1.70) | 2.05 (1.60 to 2.64) | |||
| Age group (years) | 18–29 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 0.79 |
| 30–39 | 1.09 (0.84 to 1.42) | 1.01 (0.77 to 1.34) | |||
| 40–49 | 1.03 (0.76 to 1.39) | 0.94 (0.67 to 1.30) | |||
| > = 50 | 1.35 (0.93 to 1.97) | 0.84 (0.55 to 1.28) | |||
| Socioeconomic quintiles | Highest | 1 | 0.65 | ||
| High | 1.09 (0.79 to 1.50) | ||||
| Middle | 0.99 (0.72 to 1.37) | ||||
| Low | 1.10 (0.80 to 1.51) | ||||
| Lowest | 0.87 (0.62 to 1.22) | ||||
| CD4 group (cells/μl) | > = 200 | 1 | <0.001 | 1 | <0.001 |
| 100–199 | 1.34 (0.96 to 1.87) | 1.19 (0.84 to 1.69) | |||
| 50–99 | 2.33 (1.67 to 3.24) | 1.69 (1.19 to 2.40) | |||
| <50 | 2.98 (2.19 to 4.04) | 2.10 (1.52 to 2.91) | |||
| BMIa | Per 1 kg/m2 increase | 0.76 (0.71 to 0.81) | <0.001 | 0.85 (0.78 to 0.91) | <0.001 |
| Haemoglobin | Per 10 g/L increase | 0.82 (0.78 to 0.86) | <0.001 | ||
| Oedema | No | 1 | <0.001 | 1 | 0.004 |
| Yes | 3.01 (2.07 to 4.38) | 1.84 (1.21 to 2.78) | |||
| Baseline TBa treatment | No | 1 | <0.001 | 1 | <0.001 |
| Yes | 0.54 (0.39 to 0.76) | 0.44 (0.31 to 0.63) | |||
| Baseline cotrimoxazole treatment | No | 1 | 0.41 | ||
| Yes | 1.13 (0.85 to 1.49) | ||||
| CRPa (mg/l) | <10 | 1 | <0.001 | 1 | <0.001 |
| 10–49 | 1.77 (1.12 to 2.80) | 1.61 (1.00 to 2.58) | |||
| 50–159 | 3.80 (2.50 to 5.78) | 3.03 (1.97 to 4.66) | |||
| ≥160 | 5.43 (3.61 to 8.18) | 3.67 (2.40 to 5.62) | |||
| Fat-free mass index | Per 1 kg/m2 increase | 0.76 (0.66 to 0.88) | <0.001 | 0.80 (0.67 to 0.95) | 0.01 |
| Fat mass index | Per 1 kg/m2 increase | 0.75 (0.64 to 0.88) | 0.001 | 0.86 (0.70 to 1.05) | 0.15 |
| Grip strength | Per 1 kg increase | 0.94 (0.93 to 0.96) | <0.001 | 0.94 (0.92 to 0.96) | <0.001 |
| MUACa | Per 1 cm increase | 0.78 (0.74 to 0.82) | <0.001 | 0.87 (0.82 to 0.92) | <0.001 |
| Appetite score | > − 0.5 | 1 | 0.004 | 1 | 0.65 |
| −1.49 to−0.55 | 1.30 (0.89 to 1.91) | 1.20 (0.81 to 1.78) | |||
| <−1.5 | 1.83 (1.27 to 2.62 | 1.08 (0.72 to 1.61) | |||
| Phosphate (mmol/l) | Cubic spline | 0.001 | 0.40 |
aAbbreviations: BMI body mass index, MUAC mid-upper arm circumference, CRP C-reactive protein, TB tuberculosis
b n = 1815 except haemoglobin n = 1670, CRP n = 1762, fat-free mass n = 1461, grip strength n = 1752, MUAC n = 1802, appetite n = 684 (Tanzanian patients only), phosphate n = 1764
cMultivariable analysis adjusted for age, sex, CD4, BMI, oedema, TB treatment, CRP, grip strength, site, follow-up time in 3 week bands (association with mortality p < 0.002 except in appetite analysis p = 0.24) and study arm. Association with fat-free mass, MUAC and appetite not adjusted for BMI. n = 1685 except fat-free mass n = 1349, MUAC n = 1672, appetite n = 630, (Tanzanian patients only), Phosphate n = 1644