Figure.

All-cause mortality of tuberculosis preventive therapy with isoniazid vs. placebo in simulated studies and effect on meta-analysis result for PPD-positive persons; aggregate results after 100 000 simulations. The point estimate of the relative risk is the mean from all the simulations, while the 95% credibility interval is a numeric interval in which the mean lies with a 95% probability. In studies that were not simulated (i.e., Pape et al.⁷ and Whalen et al.⁸), only the published point estimate of the treatment effect is reported as the 95% confidence interval from these trials and 95% credibility interval from simulations are not comparable. PPD = purified protein derivative.