Figure 2.

False-discovery rate. We simulated constant-rate trees with a fixed speciation rate, $\lambda =0.01$, under various extinction rates, $\text{μ}=\lambda \times \{0,0.1,\dots ,0.9\}$ ($y$-axis), and of various sizes, $N=\{100,1000,10,000\}$ (left to right panels). We simulated 1000 trees for each combination of these settings, and then collapsed each tree to various numbers of terminal lineages, $k=\{10,15,20,25,30,40,100\}$ ($x$-axis of each panel), by retaining the oldest $k-1$ nodes and assigning the pruned species to their corresponding terminal lineages. We then analyzed each tree with MEDUSA, and recorded the fraction of trees in which at least one diversification-rate shift was inferred (the false-discovery rate; FDR).