Table 1.

Prevention interventions

Intervention	Target population	Effectiveness	Unit cost	Achievable coverage (%)
VMMC	Eligible men	60% reduction in RoA	$68 per procedure	80
BCC	Heterosexual men	20% reduction in RoA	$63 pppy	100
	Low-risk women	20% reduction in RoA	$63 pppy	100
	FSW	50% reduction in RoA	$28 pppy	100
	MSM	50% reduction in RoA	$28 pppy	100
Early ART	Heterosexual men	70% reduction in RoT	$457 pppy	33
	Low-risk women	70% reduction in RoT	$457 pppy	33
	FSW	70% reduction in RoT	$457 pppy	66
	MSM	70% reduction in RoT	$457 pppy	66
PrEP	Heterosexual men	75% reduction in RoA	$95 pppy	25
	Low-risk women	75% reduction in RoA	$95 pppy	25
	FSW	75% reduction in RoA	$95 pppy	50
	MSM	75% reduction in RoA	$95 pppy	50

A unit cost is assigned to each intervention following the UNAIDS Fast Track framework [17]. For continuity with previous studies [23,24], we assume homogeneity of individual-level efficacies of early ART and PrEP with respect to risk. As this is not a forecast analysis, we do not include discounting of costs or effects, nor do we make assumptions about whether intervention costs would decrease [61] or increase [62] with scale.

VMMC, voluntary medical male circumcision; BCC, behaviour change communication; Early ART, antiretroviral therapy as prevention comprising outreach testing and offering of ART to all HIV-positive people; PrEP, pre-exposure prophylaxis; FSW, female sex workers; MSM, men who have sex with men; RoA, risk of HIV acquisition; RoT, risk of onward HIV transmission; pppy, per person per year.