Table 6.
Hazard Ratios and 95% CI for Incident ASCVD for Change in AHA‐Defined PA Categories From ARIC Visit 1 (1987–1989) to Visit 3 (1993–1995), Stratified by Family History of Premature CHDf
| No FHx | FHx | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N Events/n Total | IRa | Model 1b | Model 2c | Model 3d | N Events/n Total | IRa | Model 1b | Model 2c | Model 3d | |
| V1 poor V3 poor | 312/1685 | 12.5 | Reference (1) | Reference (1) | Reference (1) | 39/200 | 13.4 | Reference (1) | Reference (1) | Reference (1) |
| V1 poor V3 intermediate | 107/651 | 10.6 | 0.86 (0.69, 1.07) | 0.91 (0.73, 1.13) | 0.86 (0.69, 1.08) | 13/67 | 13.7 | 1.14 (0.61, 2.14) | 1.26 (0.67, 2.39) | 1.12 (0.57, 2.20) |
| V1 poor V3 recommended | 101/639 | 10.2 | 0.69 (0.55, 0.86) | 0.74 (0.59, 0.93) | 0.73 (0.58, 0.93) | 7/60 | 8.1 | 0.54 (0.24, 1.21) | 0.59 (0.26, 1.33) | 0.55 (0.24, 1.26) |
| V1 intermediate V3 poor | 117/731 | 10.5 | 0.85 (0.69, 1.06) | 0.93 (0.75, 1.16) | 0.93 (0.74, 1.16) | 8/72 | 7.1 | 0.58 (0.27, 1.26) | 0.61 (0.28, 1.32) | 0.55 (0.25, 1.20) |
| V1 intermediate V3 intermediate | 89/730 | 7.7 | 0.67 (0.53, 0.85) | 0.79 (0.62, 1.01) | 0.73 (0.57, 0.94) | 17/84 | 13 | 1.01 (0.56, 1.79) | 1.20 (0.67, 2.17) | 1.10 (0.60, 2.04) |
| V1 intermediate V3 recommended | 117/819 | 9.1 | 0.69 (0.55, 0.85) | 0.80 (0.65, 1.00) | 0.80 (0.64, 1.00) | 13/90 | 9.4 | 0.70 (0.37, 1.32) | 0.82 (0.43, 1.56) | 0.75 (0.38, 1.46) |
| V1 recommended V3 poor | 90/584 | 10.2 | 0.79 (0.62, 1.00) | 0.83 (0.65, 1.05) | 0.80 (0.63, 1.02) | 12/69 | 12 | 0.87 (0.45, 1.67) | 0.97 (0.50, 1.87) | 0.73 (0.37, 1.46) |
| V1 recommended V3 intermediate | 72/616 | 7.4 | 0.61 (0.47, 0.79) | 0.71 (0.54, 0.92) | 0.71 (0.54, 0.92) | 10/79 | 7.9 | 0.59 (0.29, 1.18) | 0.67 (0.33, 1.36) | 0.65 (0.32, 1.34) |
| V1 recommended V3 recommended | 314/2348 | 8.5 | 0.61 (0.52, 0.72) | 0.77 (0.65, 0.92) | 0.77 (0.65, 0.92) | 29/242 | 7.5 | 0.54 (0.33, 0.89) | 0.69 (0.41, 1.17) | 0.61 (0.36, 1.03) |
| P‐valuee | 0.678 | |||||||||
AHA indicates American Heart Association; ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; ASCVD, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; BMI, body mass index; CHD, coronary heart disease; FHx, family history; GFR, glomerular filtration rate; HDL, high‐density lipoprotein; LDL, low‐density lipoprotein; PA, physical activity.
Incidence rate (IR) is per 1000 person years.
Model 1: Age, sex, race/center.
Model 2: Age, education, BMI, smoking status, and alcohol intake.
Model 3: Model 2+additional potential mediating variables (of the association between PA and ASCVD risk)−systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, use of lipid‐lowering medications, and estimated GFR.
P for interaction was assessed using model 2.
We excluded 263 participants who developed ASCVD before or on visit 3.