. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2016 Oct 25.

Published in final edited form as: Ann Intern Med. 2016 Jan 12;164(4):215–225. doi: 10.7326/M15-1536

Table 4.

Percent of Annual Mortality Reduction Maintained by Biennial Screening by Strategy and Model

	D	E	G-E	M^§	S	W	Median
50–74^*	79.8%	76.7%	84.6%	98.9%	82.8%	72.0%	81.3%
45–74^†	77.8%	73.4%	81.5%	96.6%	80.2%	68.3%	79.0%
40–74^‡	79.7%	75.6%	82.3%	98.2%	82.0%	71.6%	80.8%

Percent of A50–74 maintained by B50–74 = percent mortality reduction B50–74/ percent mortality reduction A50–74

^†

Percent of A45–74 maintained by B45–74 = percent mortality reduction B45–74/ percent mortality reduction A45–74

^‡

Percent of A40–74 maintained by B40–74 = percent mortality reduction B40–74/ percent mortality reduction A40–74

^§

Model M does not include a natural history component. Based on a combination of assumptions regarding underlying incidence trends in the absence of screening, it essentially yields a long invasive cancer lead time; thus all cancers found with annual screening can also be detected with biennial screening.