Table 3.

Odds of international outmigration from rural Mexico in response to the influence of climate shocks for various time lags

	Lag 1		Lag 2		Lag 3		Lag 4		Lag 5		Lag 6		Lag 7
	b	sig.	b	sig.	b	sig.	b	sig.	b	sig.	b	sig.	b	sig.
Warm spell duration index	1.11	***	1.11	***	1.18	***	1.12	***	1.10	**	1.10	**	0.99
No. days heavy precip	1.02		1.08	*	1.10	**	1.05		1.04		1.00		1.06

Note: Coefficients are reported in odds ratios; estimates derived from fully adjusted multilevel event history models controlling for various household and municipality factors (Table 2, Specification F3); the coefficient for “No. days heavy precip” reflects the effect of a one standard deviation decrease in precipitation; Lag n (n = 1...7) reflect the number of years (n) between the climate signal and the year (t) during which migration was observed; a jackknife-type procedure was performed, omitting one municipality at a time from the sample (Nawrotzki 2012; Ruiter and De Graaf 2006). The results demonstrated that the estimates were highly robust;

^*p<0.05

^**p<0.01

^***p<0.001