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. 2016 Oct 27;355:i5432. doi: 10.1136/bmj.i5432

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Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions

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graphic file with name nagm034309.f3_default.jpg — Fig 3 Index trial P value versus subsequent large trial data effect size. VLE=very large effect; light dots=refuted index trial VLEs based on the a priori definition; dark dots=upheld index trial VLEs. Relative risks have been consistently coined so that all are above one (that is, a relative risk of 0.2 becomes 5)